Real Betis
Attack+11%
Defense risk−14%
Our take
Real Betis were clear favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Osasuna. Real Betis were without Marc Bartra. Osasuna were without Aimar Oroz and V. Rosier. Real Betis had 21 days of rest, Osasuna 22.2 and had to travel 707 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel707 kmRest days21 · 22.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real Betis61%
Draw20%
Osasuna19%
Real Betis61%
Draw22%
Osasuna17%
Real Betis60%
Draw21%
Osasuna20%
Real Betis53%
Draw22%
Osasuna25%
Real Betis60%
Draw20%
Osasuna19%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
Warm
27°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 41%
Referee · SpainCarlos Muniz Munoz
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 13
Team strength
Real Betis
Osasuna
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
79
AttackIn forecast
50
59
DefenceIn forecast
50
94
Form indexContext
29
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack0%
Defense risk+19%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Real BetisOsasuna
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
100%
Scored inContext
57%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
17.43
ShotsContext
9.43
6.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
37%
On target shareContext
41%
10.14
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
56%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.71
Shots allowedContext
12.86
5.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
4.00
BlocksContext
3.86
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
76%
Save rateContext
52%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
519
PassesContext
388
451
Accurate passesContext
312
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.52
9.71
FoulsContext
14.00
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.70
ShotsContext
12.10
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
52%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.40
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.30
BlocksContext
3.44
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
76%
Save rateContext
51%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
523
PassesContext
390
456
Accurate passesContext
316
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.57
10.00
FoulsContext
14.10
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
WWWWD
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 94 · 13 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +6.4 vs expected
Osasuna
WLLLD
Rest22.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel707 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 29 · 4 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 22.2La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 707 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
11Fran García
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
2Héctor Bellerín
21Marc Roca
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
22Isco
17Rodrigo Riquelme
9C. Hernández
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones
35U. Santos
24Catena
27Íñigo Arguibide
16Moi Gómez
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
14Rubén García
9Raúl García
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −16.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF Marc Bartra Starter 7.02 Def −10.5%
- DEF Aitor Ruibal Rotation 6.79 Def −4.5%
- DEF J. Firpo Rotation 6.47 Def −1.7%
Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals
Attack line −17.7% · Defence line −21.3% of weighted minutes
- MID Aimar Oroz Starter 6.70 Att −9.3% Def −5.7%
- DEF V. Rosier Starter 6.68 Def −10.9%
- DEF Jorge Herrando Rotation 6.63 Def −4.4%
- ATT Raúl Moro Rotation 6.58 Att −5.2%
- ATT Kike Barja Rotation 6.67 Att −2.8%
- MID R. Del Castillo Depth 5.94 Att −0.4% Def −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Osasuna-0.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Osasuna · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 3.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Levante | L 2–5 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
7 Real Betis wins2 draws1 Osasuna wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.90
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 0%
- 12 Apr 2026Osasuna1–1Real Betis
- 28 Sep 2025Real Betis2–0Osasuna
- 11 May 2025Real Betis1–1Osasuna
- 19 Oct 2024Osasuna1–2Real Betis
- 5 May 2024Osasuna0–2Real Betis
- 29 Oct 2023Real Betis2–1Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.71 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 43% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Real Betis | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.71 | 7.50 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 4.29 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Real Betis | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 8.00 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.80 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Muniz Munoz Spain · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 4.24
Red cards0.23league 0.29
Cards 5+31%league 53%
Fouls25.5league 24.8
Penalties0.15league 0.36
Home wins31%league 45%
Real BetisNo previous matches with this referee.
OsasunaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis7 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
0-15
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Osasuna7 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
