Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Betis50.2%fair odds 1.99
Draw26.1%fair odds 3.83
Real Sociedad23.7%fair odds 4.21
Expected goals1.61 – 1.04total 2.65
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Betis ↓ · Real Sociedad → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Betis goals, columns Real Sociedad goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.04
- 1–010.8%9.28
- 2–19.5%10.49
- 2–09.2%10.88
- 0–07.7%13.01
- 0–16.7%14.93
- 1–26.1%16.33
- 3–15.1%19.50
- 3–04.9%20.22
- 2–24.9%20.24
Winning margin
11.3%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 8.86
15.5%
Real Betis by 2
fair 6.44
23.4%
Real Betis by 1
fair 4.28
26.1%
Draw
fair 3.83
14.8%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 6.76
6.4%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 15.61
2.5%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 39.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Real Betis goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Real Sociedad goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 50.2% | 51.1% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Real Sociedad win | 23.7% | 23.7% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | 52.6% | -3.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.3% | 54.7% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.61 | 1.70 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.04 | 1.08 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Betis win50.2%1.99
- Draw26.1%3.83
- Real Sociedad win23.7%4.21
- Double chance Real Betis or draw76.3%1.31
- Double chance Real Betis or Real Sociedad73.9%1.35
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw49.8%2.01
- Draw no bet Real Betis67.9%1.47
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad32.1%3.11
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.8%1.34
- Over 2.549.4%2.02
- Over 3.527.5%3.64
- Over 4.513.0%7.71
- Under 1.525.2%3.98
- Under 2.550.6%1.98
- Under 3.572.5%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes52.3%1.91
- No47.7%2.10
- Yes and over 2.539.9%2.51
- Real Betis win and yes22.4%4.46
- Draw and yes18.4%5.43
- Real Sociedad win and yes11.5%8.69
Team goals
- Real Betis over 0.580.1%1.25
- Real Betis over 1.547.9%2.09
- Real Betis over 2.522.0%4.54
- Real Sociedad over 0.564.5%1.55
- Real Sociedad over 1.527.8%3.60
- Real Sociedad over 2.58.7%11.47
- Real Betis clean sheet35.5%2.82
- Real Sociedad clean sheet19.9%5.02
- Real Betis win to nil27.8%3.60
- Real Sociedad win to nil12.2%8.18
Handicap
- Real Betis −1.526.8%3.73
- Real Betis −2.511.3%8.86
- Real Sociedad +1.573.2%1.37
- Real Sociedad +2.588.7%1.13
- Real Sociedad −1.58.9%11.17
- Real Betis +1.591.1%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored41
Favourite won51.2%
Avg chance given to result41.7%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right63.4%
BTTS called right63.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 44.4% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.3% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.1% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.8% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 10 of 41 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5601 | 0.5775 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 60.0% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 10 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 41 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.