Real Betis vs Real Sociedad – 19 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 5 Fri, Sep 19 · 20:00 Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

Real Betis 10th · 6 pts · 5 played DWDLD

3–1Full time

Real Sociedad 17th · 2 pts · 4 played DDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis were slight favourites.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 51). Real Betis had 5.2 days of rest, Real Sociedad 6.2 and had to travel 741 km.

Away travel741 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real Betis50%

Draw26%

Real Sociedad24%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.04

Real Betis51%

Draw25%

Real Sociedad23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Real Betis51%

Draw26%

Real Sociedad23%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.01

Real Betis43%

Draw27%

Real Sociedad30%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.16

Real Betis51%

Draw25%

Real Sociedad24%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.08

Over 2.5 49% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 24

Team strength

Real Betis

Real Sociedad

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

72 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

79 AttackIn forecast 62

59 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Betis

Real Sociedad

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

100% Scored inContext 75%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.40 ShotsContext 17.50

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

31% On target shareContext 29%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

59% Box shareContext 60%

8% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.20 Shots allowedContext 13.75

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.00 BlocksContext 5.33

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

83% Save rateContext 55%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

470 PassesContext 462

406 Accurate passesContext 398

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.73

10.80 FoulsContext 15.00

14.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.75

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

100% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.10 ShotsContext 13.30

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

34% On target shareContext 29%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

57% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 5%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.60 Shots allowedContext 11.10

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.60 BlocksContext 2.89

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

69% Save rateContext 58%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

459 PassesContext 458

394 Accurate passesContext 392

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.10 FoulsContext 13.80

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,079 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Sociedad

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel741 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Betis	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	741 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,079 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Pau López(G)

23J. Firpo 4Natan 3Diego Llorente 2Héctor Bellerín

8Pablo Fornals 14S. Amrabat

10A. Ezzalzouli 20G. Lo Celso 7Antony

19C. Hernández

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Álex Remiro(G)

17Sergio Gómez 16D. Ćaleta-Car 5Zubeldia 2J. Aramburu

4Jon Gorrotxategi

7Barrenetxea 28Pablo Marín 23Brais Méndez 14T. Kubo

10Mikel Oyarzabal

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Betis Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Sociedad Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Betis-0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Real Sociedad+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Real Sociedad · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Real Betis wins4 draws3 Real Sociedad wins

Goals per game1.10 – 0.90 Over 2.540% Both scored10% Clean sheets60% · 60%

16 Feb 2025Real Betis3–0Real Sociedad
1 Dec 2024Real Sociedad2–0Real Betis
19 May 2024Real Betis0–2Real Sociedad
17 Dec 2023Real Sociedad0–0Real Betis
25 Apr 2023Real Betis0–0Real Sociedad
30 Oct 2022Real Sociedad0–2Real Betis

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Betis	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.50
Match goals	2.40	2.50	2.65
Over 1.5	80%	75%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	25%
Both teams scored	80%	75%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	5	4

	Real Betis	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.50
Match goals	2.40	2.50	2.65
Over 1.5	80%	75%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	25%
Both teams scored	80%	75%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	5	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Betis	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	8.50
Corners conceded	5.20	3.75
Match total	10.80	12.25	9.62
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	60% 3/5	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.75
Opponent cards	2.60	1.75
Match total	4.00	3.50	4.03
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	0% 0/4

	Real Betis	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	7.60
Corners conceded	5.30	3.80
Match total	10.50	11.40	9.62
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	1.70
Match total	3.90	3.50	4.03
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.29league 3.73

Red cards0.38league 0.24

Cards 5+71%league 37%

Fouls24.3league 24.3

Penalties0.25league 0.34

Home wins50%league 46%

Real Betis3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W20 Apr 24A · Valencia2–13
D18 Feb 24H · Alaves0–05
D17 Dec 23A · Real Sociedad0–04

Real Sociedad4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

L23 Apr 25A · Alaves0–15
L2 Mar 24A · Sevilla2–32
D17 Dec 23H · Real Betis0–03
D29 Oct 23A · Rayo Vallecano2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.