Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Real Betis. Real Betis had 4.3 days of rest, SC Braga 4.1 and had to travel 509 km.
Away travel509 kmRest days4.3 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real Betis47%
Draw27%
SC Braga26%
Real Betis45%
Draw27%
SC Braga28%
Real Betis47%
Draw27%
SC Braga26%
Real Betis40%
Draw28%
SC Braga32%
Real Betis47%
Draw28%
SC Braga26%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 112
Team strength
Real Betis
SC Braga
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
79
AttackIn forecast
42
59
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisSC Braga
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
67%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
15.00
ShotsContext
8.33
7.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
49%
On target shareContext
52%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
60%
Box shareContext
80%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
6.00
Shots allowedContext
9.33
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.33
BlocksContext
2.50
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
83%
Save rateContext
75%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
531
PassesContext
583
458
Accurate passesContext
512
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.00
FoulsContext
13.67
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
3.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.30
ShotsContext
9.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
45%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
56%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.88
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.60
BlocksContext
3.22
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
69%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
509
PassesContext
550
439
Accurate passesContext
479
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.70
FoulsContext
13.90
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,433 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
SC Braga
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel509 km39 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 4.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 509 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,433 km | 39 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
25Pau López(G)
12R. Rodríguez
3Diego Llorente
5Marc Bartra
2Héctor Bellerín
15Álvaro Fidalgo
14S. Amrabat
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
19C. Hernández
7Antony
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
77Gabri Martínez
27F. Grillitsch
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
34D. Tıknaz
18Pau Víctor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- SC Braga+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
SC Braga · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Real Betis wins1 draws0 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Apr 2026SC Braga1–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Real Betis | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.80 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.33 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 5.34 | 5.00 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Real Betis | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.22 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.00 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 112 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.38
Red cards0.29league 0.29
Cards 5+51%league 57%
Fouls25.0league 26.0
Penalties0.20league 0.19
Home wins37%league 43%
Real BetisNo previous matches with this referee.
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
SC Braga3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
3
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
