Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were clear favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Betis. Real Betis had 8.1 days of rest, Sevilla 7.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Betis61%
Draw23%
Sevilla16%
Real Betis61%
Draw22%
Sevilla16%
Real Betis61%
Draw24%
Sevilla16%
Real Betis54%
Draw26%
Sevilla21%
Real Betis62%
Draw22%
Sevilla15%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 47
Team strength
Real Betis
Sevilla
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
79
AttackIn forecast
48
59
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisSevilla
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
92%
Scored inContext
80%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.56
ShotsContext
10.96
4.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.76
Shots in the boxContext
7.28
59%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
3.40
12.28
Shots allowedContext
10.56
4.16
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.21
BlocksContext
3.45
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
75%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
449
PassesContext
418
378
Accurate passesContext
343
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.48
FoulsContext
14.72
12.92
Fouls sufferedContext
12.88
1.84
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
11.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
39%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
52%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.29
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.60
BlocksContext
3.00
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
72%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
445
PassesContext
418
377
Accurate passesContext
347
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.90
FoulsContext
14.40
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,577 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sevilla
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km757 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,577 km | 757 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
24Aitor Ruibal
15Álvaro Fidalgo
21Marc Roca
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
19C. Hernández
7Antony
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
4Kike Salas
6N. Gudelj
3César Azpilicueta
12G. Suazo
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
2J. Carmona Navarro
10A. Sánchez
16Juanlu Sánchez
9A. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sevilla+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.08
Sevilla · Away
1.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Getafe | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | W 4–1 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 39 of 72 · 1.63 per game | 29 of 72 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Real Betis wins4 draws4 Sevilla wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 30 Nov 2025Sevilla0–2Real Betis
- 30 Mar 2025Real Betis2–1Sevilla
- 6 Oct 2024Sevilla1–0Real Betis
- 28 Apr 2024Real Betis1–1Sevilla
- 12 Nov 2023Sevilla1–1Real Betis
- 21 May 2023Sevilla0–0Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.84 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 20% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Real Betis | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.42 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.84 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 12/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 6/24 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 4.48 | 5.08 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 15/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 12/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Real Betis | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.22 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 4.19
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+30%league 46%
Fouls21.8league 24.6
Penalties0.32league 0.38
Home wins49%league 47%
Real Betis5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D15 Dec 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–01
- W9 Feb 24A · Cadiz2–01
- D21 Dec 23H · Girona1–12
- W1 Oct 23H · Valencia3–02
- D20 Aug 23H · Atletico Madrid0–02
Sevilla3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D19 Jan 26A · Elche2–21
- D11 Mar 24A · Almeria2–21
- D21 Oct 23H · Real Madrid1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis25 games · scored 40 · conceded 30
3
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
7
6
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
Sevilla25 games · scored 32 · conceded 39
3
3
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
7
31-45
7
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
8
12
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
