Real Betis vs Valencia – 1 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 22 Sun, Feb 1 · 15:15 Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

Real Betis 6th · 32 pts · 21 played WLDWL

2–1Full time

Valencia 15th · 23 pts · 21 played DLDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis were slight favourites.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Valencia. Real Betis had 2.8 days of rest, Valencia 8 and had to travel 540 km.

Away travel540 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Real Betis50%

Draw25%

Valencia25%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.13

Real Betis54%

Draw25%

Valencia21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Real Betis51%

Draw26%

Valencia24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.08

Real Betis42%

Draw27%

Valencia31%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.26

Real Betis51%

Draw24%

Valencia25%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.20

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 48

Team strength

Real Betis

Valencia

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

79 AttackIn forecast 39

59 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Betis

Valencia

1.62 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.05

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

90% Scored inContext 76%

33% Clean sheetsContext 24%

14.86 ShotsContext 11.00

5.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

34% On target shareContext 27%

8.95 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

60% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.19 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.24 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.24 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.48

3.20 BlocksContext 3.21

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.21

74% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

460 PassesContext 408

389 Accurate passesContext 334

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.48 FoulsContext 11.95

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.05

1.81 Yellow cardsContext 1.81

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

80% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.20 ShotsContext 12.90

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

34% On target shareContext 24%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

51% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 9%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.60 Shots allowedContext 9.80

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.80 BlocksContext 2.33

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

69% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

450 PassesContext 428

381 Accurate passesContext 353

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.80 FoulsContext 12.40

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km6,363 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel540 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Betis	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	540 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	6,363 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 6	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

12R. Rodríguez 3Diego Llorente 5Marc Bartra 24Aitor Ruibal

21Marc Roca 6Sergi Altimira

10A. Ezzalzouli 18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez 7Antony

9L. Ávila

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 24E. Cömert 20D. Foulquier

7A. Danjuma 18Pepelu 23F. Ugrinic 11Luis Rioja

9Hugo Duro 15L. Beltrán

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Betis Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Betis-0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Valencia+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home 1.90points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-3
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.10

Valencia · Away 0.60points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-6
Scored: 0.70
Conceded: 2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Real Betis	Valencia
Alaves	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Villarreal	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	L 0–2 H
Oviedo	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Real Madrid	L 1–5 A	L 0–4 A
Getafe	W 4–0 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Barcelona	L 3–5 H	L 0–6 A
Sevilla	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Girona	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Mallorca	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 A
Espanyol	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A
Osasuna	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Real Sociedad	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Levante	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Athletic Club	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	L 1–4 A
Elche	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	31 of 60 · 1.55 per game	22 of 60 · 1.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Real Betis wins4 draws2 Valencia wins

Goals per game1.90 – 1.40 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%

9 Nov 2025Valencia1–1Real Betis
23 May 2025Real Betis1–1Valencia
23 Nov 2024Valencia4–2Real Betis
20 Apr 2024Valencia1–2Real Betis
1 Oct 2023Real Betis3–0Valencia
4 Jun 2023Real Betis1–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Betis	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.62	1.05
Conceded per game	1.29	1.57
Match goals	2.90	2.62	2.81
Over 1.5	90%	81%
Over 2.5	48%	43%	53%
Over 3.5	29%	24%
Both teams scored	62%	57%	56%
Clean sheets	33%	24%
Failed to score	10%	24%
Games	21	21

	Real Betis	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.20
Conceded per game	1.70	1.30
Match goals	3.40	2.50	2.81
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Betis	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.17
Corners conceded	5.30	5.33
Match total	9.80	10.50	9.57
Over 8.5	65% 13/20	67% 12/18
Over 9.5	50% 10/20	56% 10/18
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	56% 10/18
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.86
Opponent cards	2.48	2.48
Match total	4.34	4.34	4.45
Over 3.5	57% 12/21	67% 14/21
Over 4.5	48% 10/21	52% 11/21

	Real Betis	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	5.44
Corners conceded	4.80	5.00
Match total	9.20	10.44	9.57
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	3.00
Match total	4.40	5.00	4.45
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 4.18

Red cards0.33league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 46%

Fouls24.6league 24.5

Penalties0.25league 0.36

Home wins50%league 47%

Real Betis3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

D28 Apr 24H · Sevilla1–13
W29 Oct 23H · Osasuna2–13
L16 Sep 23A · Barcelona0–52

Valencia3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

D16 Aug 25H · Real Sociedad1–11
L11 Nov 23A · Real Madrid1–53
W11 Aug 23A · Sevilla2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.