Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Real Betis. Real Betis had 7.3 days of rest, Villarreal 7.2 and had to travel 584 km.
Away travel584 kmRest days7.3 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Betis39%
Draw29%
Villarreal32%
Real Betis41%
Draw27%
Villarreal32%
Real Betis40%
Draw28%
Villarreal31%
Real Betis33%
Draw29%
Villarreal39%
Real Betis40%
Draw27%
Villarreal33%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 33
Team strength
Real Betis
Villarreal
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
79
AttackIn forecast
76
59
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisVillarreal
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.06
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
89%
Scored inContext
89%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
14.68
ShotsContext
12.78
5.05
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
34%
On target shareContext
38%
9.05
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
61%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.50
12.16
Shots allowedContext
12.17
4.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
3.17
BlocksContext
4.63
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
72%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
458
PassesContext
406
387
Accurate passesContext
339
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.32
FoulsContext
11.72
12.74
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.70
ShotsContext
12.30
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
35%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
62%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.43
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.90
BlocksContext
3.78
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
66%
Save rateContext
58%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
447
PassesContext
393
376
Accurate passesContext
320
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.40
FoulsContext
13.20
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,110 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Villarreal
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel584 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 584 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,110 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
24Aitor Ruibal
21Marc Roca
6Sergi Altimira
20G. Lo Celso
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
9L. Ávila
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
8J. Foyth
26Pau Navarro
20Alberto Moleiro
10Dani Parejo
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
9G. Mikautadze
7Gerard Moreno
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Villarreal+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.22
Villarreal · Away
2.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–5 A | L 1–3 A |
| Getafe | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | L 0–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 51 · 1.59 per game | 40 of 51 · 2.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Real Betis wins2 draws4 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.50
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 18 Oct 2025Villarreal2–2Real Betis
- 13 Apr 2025Real Betis1–2Villarreal
- 15 Dec 2024Villarreal1–2Real Betis
- 10 Mar 2024Real Betis2–3Villarreal
- 13 Aug 2023Villarreal1–2Real Betis
- 12 Mar 2023Villarreal1–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 2.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 94% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 56% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 19 | 18 |
| Real Betis | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.39 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.06 | 8.80 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 12/18 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 4.33 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 9/19 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Real Betis | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 7.67 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.50 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 4.17
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+36%league 47%
Fouls25.1league 24.6
Penalties0.24league 0.36
Home wins36%league 46%
Real Betis7 with this referee
Record3-4-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Nov 25A · Valencia1–13
- W28 Sep 25H · Osasuna2–00
- D18 Aug 25A · Elche1–11
- D23 May 25H · Valencia1–11
- W5 May 24A · Osasuna2–02
VillarrealNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis19 games · scored 31 · conceded 25
3
7
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Villarreal18 games · scored 37 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
6
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
8
3
46-60
7
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
