Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Betis39.3%fair odds 2.54
Draw28.6%fair odds 3.49
Villarreal32.0%fair odds 3.12
Expected goals1.30 – 1.15total 2.44
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Villarreal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Betis ↓ · Villarreal → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Betis goals, columns Villarreal goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.35
- 1–010.6%9.45
- 0–09.4%10.68
- 0–19.3%10.79
- 2–18.4%11.94
- 1–27.4%13.51
- 2–07.3%13.68
- 0–25.7%17.53
- 2–24.8%20.82
- 3–13.6%27.60
Winning margin
6.3%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 15.82
11.7%
Real Betis by 2
fair 8.56
21.3%
Real Betis by 1
fair 4.69
28.6%
Draw
fair 3.49
18.8%
Villarreal by 1
fair 5.33
9.1%
Villarreal by 2
fair 10.97
4.2%
Villarreal by 3+
fair 23.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Real Betis goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Villarreal goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 39.3% | 39.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 28.6% | 27.2% | +1.4 pp |
| Villarreal win | 32.0% | 33.0% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.2% | 49.8% | -5.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 54.7% | -4.5 pp |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.30 | 1.40 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Villarreal | 1.15 | 1.26 | -0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Betis win39.3%2.54
- Draw28.6%3.49
- Villarreal win32.0%3.12
- Double chance Real Betis or draw68.0%1.47
- Double chance Real Betis or Villarreal71.4%1.40
- Double chance Villarreal or draw60.7%1.65
- Draw no bet Real Betis55.1%1.82
- Draw no bet Villarreal44.9%2.23
Goals
- Over 0.590.6%1.10
- Over 1.570.8%1.41
- Over 2.544.2%2.26
- Over 3.523.1%4.34
- Over 4.510.1%9.86
- Under 1.529.2%3.42
- Under 2.555.8%1.79
- Under 3.576.9%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes50.3%1.99
- No49.7%2.01
- Yes and over 2.536.7%2.73
- Real Betis win and yes16.9%5.92
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Villarreal win and yes14.1%7.10
Team goals
- Real Betis over 0.572.7%1.38
- Real Betis over 1.537.2%2.69
- Real Betis over 2.514.2%7.03
- Villarreal over 0.568.2%1.47
- Villarreal over 1.531.8%3.15
- Villarreal over 2.510.9%9.17
- Real Betis clean sheet31.8%3.15
- Villarreal clean sheet27.3%3.66
- Real Betis win to nil22.4%4.46
- Villarreal win to nil18.0%5.57
Handicap
- Real Betis −1.518.0%5.56
- Real Betis −2.56.3%15.82
- Villarreal +1.582.0%1.22
- Villarreal +2.593.7%1.07
- Villarreal −1.513.3%7.52
- Real Betis +1.586.7%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored193
Favourite won55.4%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.564
Over 2.5 called right60.1%
BTTS called right54.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 30 | 37.8% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.6% | 47.6% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 54.7% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.4% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 17 | 74.8% | 88.2% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 162 of 193 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5610 | 0.5567 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.9% | 42.6% |
| Favourite won | 56.8% | 56.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 162 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 193 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.