Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Real Madrid
2nd · 83 pts · 37 played
DWLWW
4–2Full time
Athletic Club
12th · 45 pts · 37 played
LWLLD
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Athletic Club. Real Madrid had 6.1 days of rest, Athletic Club 6.1 and had to travel 323 km.
Away travel323 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real Madrid63%
Draw23%
Athletic Club15%
Real Madrid71%
Draw18%
Athletic Club11%
Real Madrid62%
Draw23%
Athletic Club15%
Real Madrid55%
Draw25%
Athletic Club19%
Real Madrid63%
Draw22%
Athletic Club15%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
RefereeJuan Martínez
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 69
Team strength
Real MadridAthletic Club
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
89
AttackIn forecast
51
85
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridAthletic Club
1.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
89%
Scored inContext
65%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
17.16
ShotsContext
13.49
6.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
38%
On target shareContext
33%
10.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.31
64%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.41
Shots allowedContext
9.14
3.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.08
3.24
BlocksContext
2.27
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
73%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
574
PassesContext
407
515
Accurate passesContext
328
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.22
FoulsContext
12.73
13.46
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.03
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.70
ShotsContext
12.90
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
38%
On target shareContext
36%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
72%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.00
Shots allowedContext
8.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.00
BlocksContext
2.11
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
74%
Save rateContext
54%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
511
PassesContext
423
452
Accurate passesContext
346
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.80
FoulsContext
12.40
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,789 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Athletic Club
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel323 km927 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 323 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,789 km | 927 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 91 | 90.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
4D. Alaba
17Raúl Asencio
2Dani Carvajal
45Thiago Pitarch
8F. Valverde
5J. Bellingham
30Franco Mastantuono
10K. Mbappé
16Gonzalo García
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
27Á. Padilla(G)
19Adama Boiro
4Aitor Paredes
5Yeray
3Dani Vivian
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
23Robert Navarro
20Unai Gómez
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Athletic Club-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.56points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 15-1-2
- Scored
- 2.28
- Conceded
- 0.78
Athletic Club · Away
0.83points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-11
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AW 5–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Alaves | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Elche | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 80 of 108 · 2.22 per game | 45 of 108 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
8 Real Madrid wins1 draws1 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game1.60 – 0.40
Over 2.530%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets70% · 0%
- 3 Dec 2025Athletic Club0–3Real Madrid
- 20 Apr 2025Real Madrid1–0Athletic Club
- 4 Dec 2024Athletic Club2–1Real Madrid
- 31 Mar 2024Real Madrid2–0Athletic Club
- 12 Aug 2023Athletic Club0–2Real Madrid
- 4 Jun 2023Real Madrid1–1Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.97 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.57 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 46% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 51% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 35% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Real Madrid | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.24 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 3.92 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 9.67 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 25/34 | 67% 24/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 20/34 | 50% 18/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 15/34 | 39% 14/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.51 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 4.16 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 51% 19/37 | 59% 22/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 15/37 | 43% 16/37 | |
| Real Madrid | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 7.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 11.67 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martínez 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.84league 4.25
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+57%league 46%
Fouls26.7league 24.5
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins42%league 48%
Real Madrid11 with this referee
Record6-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against4 · 2
- D14 Dec 24A · Rayo Vallecano3–32
- W14 Sep 24A · Real Sociedad2–01
- W13 May 23H · Getafe1–01
- L7 Nov 22A · Rayo Vallecano2–35
- W14 Aug 22A · Almeria2–11
Athletic Club9 with this referee
Record2-4-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D2 Feb 25A · Real Betis2–21
- D28 Oct 24A · Mallorca0–01
- L19 Feb 23A · Atletico Madrid0–13
- L23 Oct 22A · Barcelona0–42
- L4 Sep 22H · Espanyol0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid37 games · scored 73 · conceded 33
6
2
0-15
10
4
16-30
15
7
31-45
14
6
46-60
10
6
61-75
18
8
76-90
Athletic Club36 games · scored 41 · conceded 52
3
8
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
10
31-45
6
9
46-60
5
10
61-75
13
13
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
