Real Madrid vs Inter – 8 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Tue, Sep 8 · 20:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid

2–1Full time

Inter

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Real Madrid. Real Madrid had 4 days of rest, Inter 3.1 and had to travel 1,188 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel1,188 kmRest days4 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Real Madrid59%

Draw20%

Inter21%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.27

Real Madrid49%

Draw25%

Inter26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11

Real Madrid59%

Draw20%

Inter21%

Expected goals 2.17 – 1.24

Real Madrid51%

Draw22%

Inter28%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.43

Real Madrid58%

Draw21%

Inter21%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.20

Over 2.5 68% Both score 64% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

28°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 24%

Warm

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 200

Team strength

Real Madrid

Inter

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

89 AttackIn forecast 91

85 DefenceIn forecast 73

79 Form indexContext 81

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Madrid

Inter

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

0.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.72

80% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.70 ShotsContext 16.40

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

41% On target shareContext 34%

11.40 Shots in the boxContext 12.30

74% Box shareContext 75%

13% ConversionContext 16%

2.56 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.00 BlocksContext 3.40

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

84% Save rateContext 71%

58% PossessionIn forecast 60%

569 PassesContext 565

513 Accurate passesContext 507

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.07 Team ratingContext 7.04

9.10 FoulsContext 9.80

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid WWWL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 79 · 9 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

L4 SepA · Real Betis0–12.0 xPts
W30 AugH · Malaga4–02.4 xPts
W26 AugH · Real Sociedad4–12.4 xPts
W22 AugA · Espanyol2–12.0 xPts

Inter WWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,188 km1,386 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 81 · 9 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W5 SepH · Napoli3–22.0 xPts
W30 AugA · Cagliari1–01.9 xPts
W22 AugH · Monza4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Madrid	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4La Liga 2026-2027, 4 Sep	3.1Serie A 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,188 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	781 km	1,386 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1T. Courtois(G)

17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 24D. Dumfries

5J. Bellingham 8F. Valverde 12T. Alexander-Arnold

7Vinícius 10K. Mbappé 21Brahim Díaz

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Josep Martínez(G)

95A. Bastoni 31Y. Bisseck 28B. Pavard

30Carlos Augusto 21C. Jones 20H. Çalhanoğlu 23N. Barella 17A. Diouf

9M. Thuram 10L. Martínez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Madrid Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Madrid+0.5 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Inter-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home No home games yet this season.

Inter · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Real Madrid wins0 draws0 Inter wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

7 Dec 2021Real Madrid2–0Inter
15 Sep 2021Inter0–1Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Madrid	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.50
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	68%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	64%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Real Madrid	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.60
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	2.80	3.80	3.50
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	68%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Madrid	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Real Madrid	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	5.20
Corners conceded	4.89	4.00
Match total	10.78	9.20	9.50
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	4.30	3.40	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 4.50

Red cards0.13league 0.00

Cards 5+35%league 50%

Fouls22.5league 26.5

Penalties0.20league 0.50

Home wins45%league 50%

Real Madrid3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L7 Apr 26H · Bayern München1–21
W26 Nov 25A · Olympiakos Piraeus4–32
W24 Oct 23A · SC Braga2–12

Inter3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

W17 Sep 25A · Ajax2–02
W23 Oct 24A · BSC Young Boys1–01
D20 Sep 23A · Real Sociedad1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.