Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Madrid58.5%fair odds 1.71
Draw20.8%fair odds 4.80
Inter20.6%fair odds 4.85
Expected goals2.23 – 1.27total 3.50
Likeliest score2–19.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Inter
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Madrid ↓ · Inter → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Madrid goals, columns Inter goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%10.49
- 1–19.0%11.09
- 2–07.5%13.35
- 3–17.1%14.13
- 1–06.3%15.94
- 2–26.1%16.48
- 3–05.6%17.99
- 1–25.4%18.35
- 3–24.5%22.21
- 4–13.9%25.39
Winning margin
19.4%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 5.16
17.6%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 5.68
21.5%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.64
20.8%
Draw
fair 4.80
12.1%
Inter by 1
fair 8.25
5.8%
Inter by 2
fair 17.38
2.8%
Inter by 3+
fair 36.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Real Madrid goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Inter goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 58.5% | 57.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 20.8% | 21.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Inter win | 20.6% | 20.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 64.3% | +3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.7% | 61.8% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 2.23 | 2.11 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Inter | 1.27 | 1.20 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Madrid win58.5%1.71
- Draw20.8%4.80
- Inter win20.6%4.85
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw79.4%1.26
- Double chance Real Madrid or Inter79.2%1.26
- Double chance Inter or draw41.5%2.41
- Draw no bet Real Madrid73.9%1.35
- Draw no bet Inter26.1%3.84
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.9%1.15
- Over 2.567.9%1.47
- Over 3.546.3%2.16
- Over 4.527.4%3.64
- Under 1.513.1%7.61
- Under 2.532.1%3.12
- Under 3.553.7%1.86
Both teams to score
- Yes64.7%1.55
- No35.3%2.83
- Yes and over 2.555.7%1.80
- Real Madrid win and yes34.0%2.94
- Draw and yes17.4%5.76
- Inter win and yes13.3%7.51
Team goals
- Real Madrid over 0.589.2%1.12
- Real Madrid over 1.565.2%1.53
- Real Madrid over 2.538.4%2.60
- Inter over 0.572.0%1.39
- Inter over 1.536.4%2.75
- Inter over 2.513.7%7.32
- Real Madrid clean sheet28.0%3.57
- Inter clean sheet10.8%9.27
- Real Madrid win to nil24.5%4.08
- Inter win to nil7.3%13.67
Handicap
- Real Madrid −1.537.0%2.70
- Real Madrid −2.519.4%5.16
- Inter +1.563.0%1.59
- Inter +2.580.6%1.24
- Inter −1.58.5%11.76
- Real Madrid +1.591.5%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.524
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 2 | 45.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5236 | 0.4692 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 44.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.