Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 72). Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Real Madrid had 14.8 days of rest, Real Betis 13.8 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days14.8 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real Madrid58%
Draw24%
Real Betis18%
Real Madrid59%
Draw23%
Real Betis18%
Real Madrid59%
Draw24%
Real Betis17%
Real Madrid50%
Draw26%
Real Betis23%
Real Madrid58%
Draw23%
Real Betis18%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 123
Team strength
Real Madrid
Real Betis
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
89
AttackIn forecast
79
85
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridReal Betis
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.12
2.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
89%
Scored inContext
88%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
18.72
ShotsContext
14.76
6.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
34%
11.61
Shots in the boxContext
9.06
62%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.93
OffsidesContext
2.08
9.61
Shots allowedContext
11.76
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.31
BlocksContext
2.94
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
75%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
566
PassesContext
456
506
Accurate passesContext
385
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.44
FoulsContext
10.35
12.44
Fouls sufferedContext
12.76
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.40
ShotsContext
14.20
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
32%
On target shareContext
41%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
61%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.90
BlocksContext
3.56
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
78%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
516
PassesContext
439
457
Accurate passesContext
368
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.30
FoulsContext
11.20
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
22A. Rüdiger
17Raúl Asencio
8F. Valverde
5J. Bellingham
14A. Tchouaméni
6E. Camavinga
11Rodrygo
7Vinícius
16Gonzalo García
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
40Ángel Ortiz
21Marc Roca
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
24Aitor Ruibal
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Real Betis+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.63
Real Betis · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-0
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Elche | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Valencia | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | L 3–5 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–5 A | L 0–2 H |
| Levante | W 4–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 39 of 51 · 2.29 per game | 28 of 51 · 1.65 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Real Madrid wins5 draws1 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.60
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 40%
- 1 Mar 2025Real Betis2–1Real Madrid
- 1 Sep 2024Real Madrid2–0Real Betis
- 25 May 2024Real Madrid0–0Real Betis
- 9 Dec 2023Real Betis1–1Real Madrid
- 5 Mar 2023Real Betis0–0Real Madrid
- 3 Sep 2022Real Madrid2–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.12 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.82 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 47% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 59% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 12% | |
| Games | 18 | 17 |
| Real Madrid | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.13 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 10.13 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 11/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 2.59 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 4.53 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 9/18 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 8/18 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Real Madrid | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.78 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.80 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 123 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.11league 4.13
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+59%league 46%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.30league 0.33
Home wins38%league 46%
Real Madrid12 with this referee
Record6-3-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.8
Pens for · against3 · 2
- L11 May 25A · Barcelona3–43
- L1 Mar 25A · Real Betis1–24
- W1 Dec 24H · Getafe2–02
- W19 Oct 24A · Celta Vigo2–11
- D19 May 24A · Villarreal4–42
Real Betis11 with this referee
Record5-3-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds4
- D18 Oct 25A · Villarreal2–21
- W21 Apr 25A · Girona3–12
- W1 Mar 25H · Real Madrid2–13
- L18 Jan 25H · Alaves1–35
- W29 Sep 24H · Espanyol1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid18 games · scored 36 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
11
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
Real Betis17 games · scored 29 · conceded 19
3
7
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
