Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Madrid57.9%fair odds 1.73
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.16
Real Betis18.1%fair odds 5.52
Expected goals1.80 – 0.91total 2.72
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Madrid ↓ · Real Betis → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Madrid goals, columns Real Betis goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.73
- 1–011.4%8.80
- 2–010.8%9.28
- 2–19.8%10.19
- 0–07.2%13.90
- 3–06.5%15.43
- 3–15.9%16.94
- 0–15.5%18.34
- 1–25.0%20.18
- 2–24.5%22.36
Winning margin
15.6%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 6.43
18.0%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 5.55
24.3%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.12
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.16
12.0%
Real Betis by 1
fair 8.36
4.6%
Real Betis by 2
fair 21.75
1.6%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 64.36
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Real Madrid goals
16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Real Betis goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 57.9% | 58.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Real Betis win | 18.1% | 18.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 53.6% | -2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.5% | 52.6% | -2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 1.80 | 1.87 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 0.91 | 0.96 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Madrid win57.9%1.73
- Draw24.0%4.16
- Real Betis win18.1%5.52
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw81.9%1.22
- Double chance Real Madrid or Real Betis76.0%1.32
- Double chance Real Betis or draw42.1%2.37
- Draw no bet Real Madrid76.2%1.31
- Draw no bet Real Betis23.8%4.19
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.0%1.32
- Over 2.551.0%1.96
- Over 3.528.9%3.46
- Over 4.513.9%7.17
- Under 1.524.0%4.17
- Under 2.549.0%2.04
- Under 3.571.1%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes50.5%1.98
- No49.5%2.02
- Yes and over 2.539.1%2.56
- Real Madrid win and yes24.8%4.03
- Draw and yes16.8%5.94
- Real Betis win and yes8.9%11.29
Team goals
- Real Madrid over 0.583.5%1.20
- Real Madrid over 1.553.8%1.86
- Real Madrid over 2.527.1%3.70
- Real Betis over 0.559.8%1.67
- Real Betis over 1.523.2%4.32
- Real Betis over 2.56.5%15.45
- Real Madrid clean sheet40.2%2.49
- Real Betis clean sheet16.5%6.08
- Real Madrid win to nil33.0%3.03
- Real Betis win to nil9.3%10.80
Handicap
- Real Madrid −1.533.6%2.98
- Real Madrid −2.515.6%6.43
- Real Betis +1.566.4%1.51
- Real Betis +2.584.4%1.18
- Real Betis −1.56.2%16.26
- Real Madrid +1.593.8%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored177
Favourite won56.5%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right60.5%
BTTS called right54.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 37.9% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 81 | 44.5% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 54.6% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 64.6% | 65.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.7% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 146 of 177 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5545 | 0.5532 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.2% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 58.2% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 146 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 177 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.