Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 48). Real Madrid had 6 days of rest, Sevilla 6.3 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days6 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Madrid73%
Draw17%
Sevilla10%
Real Madrid73%
Draw17%
Sevilla9%
Real Madrid73%
Draw18%
Sevilla9%
Real Madrid66%
Draw21%
Sevilla13%
Real Madrid73%
Draw17%
Sevilla10%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 32
Team strength
Real Madrid
Sevilla
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
89
AttackIn forecast
48
85
DefenceIn forecast
57
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridSevilla
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
88%
Scored inContext
88%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.82
ShotsContext
10.50
6.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
36%
On target shareContext
33%
11.47
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
61%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.67
9.41
Shots allowedContext
10.31
3.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
3.27
BlocksContext
3.75
2.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
65%
Save rateContext
72%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
570
PassesContext
418
510
Accurate passesContext
341
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.35
FoulsContext
14.69
12.06
Fouls sufferedContext
13.56
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.80
ShotsContext
10.10
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
33%
On target shareContext
34%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
58%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.38
10.70
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.60
BlocksContext
3.29
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
77%
Save rateContext
68%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
538
PassesContext
399
477
Accurate passesContext
319
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.50
FoulsContext
14.10
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km568 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sevilla
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km1,079 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 568 km | 1,079 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
20Fran García
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
17Raúl Asencio
5J. Bellingham
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
11Rodrygo
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
23Marcão
6N. Gudelj
2J. Carmona Navarro
16Juanlu Sánchez
18L. Agoumé
19B. Mendy
20M. Sow
10A. Sánchez
7Isaac Romero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sevilla+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.71
Sevilla · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Valencia | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Villarreal | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–5 A | L 0–3 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 36 of 45 · 2.40 per game | 20 of 45 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Real Madrid wins2 draws0 Sevilla wins
Goals per game2.10 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 0%
- 18 May 2025Sevilla0–2Real Madrid
- 22 Dec 2024Real Madrid4–2Sevilla
- 25 Feb 2024Real Madrid1–0Sevilla
- 21 Oct 2023Sevilla1–1Real Madrid
- 27 May 2023Sevilla1–2Real Madrid
- 22 Oct 2022Real Madrid3–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.94 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 3.00 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 69% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 63% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 13% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.13 | 5.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.53 | 4.94 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 10.00 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 3.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.41 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.17 | 5.19 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 8/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 11.10 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.06league 4.10
Red cards0.34league 0.27
Cards 5+66%league 45%
Fouls24.8league 24.6
Penalties0.50league 0.32
Home wins53%league 47%
Real Madrid2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D18 Feb 24A · Rayo Vallecano1–13
- W3 Jan 24H · Mallorca1–02
Sevilla2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W5 Oct 25H · Barcelona4–15
- W14 Apr 24A · Las Palmas2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid17 games · scored 34 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
10
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
Sevilla16 games · scored 24 · conceded 24
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
7
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
