Real Madrid
Attack+7%
Defense risk−10%
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Real Madrid were without Vinícius Júnior. Sevilla were without Miguel Sierra and Jon Guridi. Real Madrid had 4 days of rest, Sevilla 6 and had to travel 390 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel390 kmRest days4 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Madrid74%
Draw16%
Sevilla10%
Real Madrid74%
Draw17%
Sevilla9%
Real Madrid74%
Draw16%
Sevilla10%
Real Madrid67%
Draw19%
Sevilla13%
Real Madrid75%
Draw15%
Sevilla9%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 64%
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 45
Team strength
Real Madrid
Sevilla
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
89
AttackIn forecast
48
85
DefenceIn forecast
57
91
Form indexContext
69
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack−27%
Defense risk+51%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Real MadridSevilla
2.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
88%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
17.88
ShotsContext
11.88
7.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
40%
On target shareContext
36%
12.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
69%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.14
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.38
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
3.63
BlocksContext
3.50
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
71%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
511
PassesContext
343
460
Accurate passesContext
265
90%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.84
8.38
FoulsContext
14.75
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
3.13
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.25
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.50
ShotsContext
11.60
7.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
42%
On target shareContext
35%
12.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
71%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.70
BlocksContext
3.38
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
74%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
490
PassesContext
353
437
Accurate passesContext
278
89%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.70
FoulsContext
15.60
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
WWLWW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,731 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
Sevilla
DWWLD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel390 km1,079 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 69 · 8 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct | 6La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,731 km | 1,079 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella
4D. Huijsen
16I. Konaté
8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande
5J. Bellingham
9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
5A. López Gallo
2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana
6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia
10Peque Fernández
11R. Vargas
9R. Ure
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −27.9% · Defence line −4.5% of weighted minutes
- ATT Vinícius Júnior Core 7.27 Att −26.4%
- DEF Raúl Asencio Rotation 6.86 Def −2.8%
- DEF Éder Militão Rotation 7.09 Def −1.4%
- ATT Rodrygo Rotation 7.09 Att −1.5%
- DEF F. Mendy Depth 6.47 Def −0.3%
Sevilla
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −37.0% · Defence line −7.7% of weighted minutes
- ATT Miguel Sierra Starter 6.01 Att −18.5%
- MID Jon Guridi Starter 6.28 Att −6.1% Def −4.5%
- ATT L. Stassin Rotation 6.77 Att −5.3%
- MID G. Kochorashvili Rotation 6.65 Att −2.6% Def −1.9%
- ATT Isaac Romero Rotation 6.44 Att −4.5%
- DEF Marcão Rotation 6.53 Def −1.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sevilla-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
Sevilla · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
9 Real Madrid wins1 draws0 Sevilla wins
Goals per game2.10 – 0.80
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 17 May 2026Sevilla0–1Real Madrid
- 20 Dec 2025Real Madrid2–0Sevilla
- 18 May 2025Sevilla0–2Real Madrid
- 22 Dec 2024Real Madrid4–2Sevilla
- 25 Feb 2024Real Madrid1–0Sevilla
- 21 Oct 2023Sevilla1–1Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.38 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.38 | 3.13 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 63% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 75% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.70 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 11.57 | 7.01 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 5.63 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Real Madrid | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.89 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 12.22 | 7.00 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.10 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.22league 4.35
Red cards0.33league 0.28
Cards 5+64%league 56%
Fouls24.0league 24.6
Penalties0.27league 0.34
Home wins42%league 43%
Real Madrid4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W26 Aug 26H · Real Sociedad4–13
- W1 Nov 25H · Valencia4–01
- W18 May 25A · Sevilla2–01
- W14 May 24H · Alaves5–01
Sevilla7 with this referee
Record6-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W11 Sep 26H · Valencia1–01
- W13 May 26A · Villarreal3–21
- W22 Feb 26A · Getafe1–01
- L18 May 25H · Real Madrid0–22
- W5 May 24H · Granada CF3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid8 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
Sevilla8 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
3
0-15
7
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
9
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
