Real Madrid vs Valencia – 1 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 1 · 20:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid 1st · 27 pts · 10 played WLWWW

4–0Full time

Valencia 18th · 9 pts · 10 played DLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were clear favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Valencia. Real Madrid had 6.2 days of rest, Valencia 7 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real Madrid76%

Draw16%

Valencia8%

Expected goals 2.45 – 0.68

Real Madrid75%

Draw16%

Valencia9%

Expected goals 2.47 – 0.72

Real Madrid75%

Draw17%

Valencia8%

Expected goals 2.40 – 0.69

Real Madrid69%

Draw19%

Valencia11%

Expected goals 2.18 – 0.77

Real Madrid76%

Draw16%

Valencia8%

Expected goals 2.52 – 0.72

Over 2.5 61% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 27

Team strength

Real Madrid

Valencia

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

89 AttackIn forecast 39

85 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Madrid

Valencia

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

2.22 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

100% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

19.00 ShotsContext 9.80

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

37% On target shareContext 32%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

62% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.71

9.90 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

4.25 BlocksContext 3.78

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

57% Save rateContext 67%

60% PossessionIn forecast 48%

581 PassesContext 392

520 Accurate passesContext 317

90% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.18 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.10 FoulsContext 12.00

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

2.61 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

100% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

20.30 ShotsContext 9.80

8.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

41% On target shareContext 32%

13.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

67% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.71

11.90 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

4.10 BlocksContext 3.78

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

68% Save rateContext 67%

59% PossessionIn forecast 48%

546 PassesContext 392

484 Accurate passesContext 317

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.15 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.90 FoulsContext 12.00

13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km25 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km843 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Madrid	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct	7La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	25 km	843 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 24D. Huijsen 3Éder Militão 8F. Valverde

5J. Bellingham 14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler

7Vinícius 10K. Mbappé 30Franco Mastantuono

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

11Luis Rioja 18Pepelu 22B. Santamaría 16Diego López

15L. Beltrán 7A. Danjuma

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Madrid+0.9 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Valencia-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 5-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.60

Valencia · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 0.60
Conceded: 2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Real Madrid	Valencia
Barcelona	W 2–1 H	L 0–6 A
Getafe	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Villarreal	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 H
Espanyol	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 A
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Oviedo	W 3–0 A	L 1–2 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Points	21 of 21 · 3.00 per game	5 of 21 · 0.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Real Madrid wins1 draws3 Valencia wins

Goals per game2.10 – 1.30 Over 2.570% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%

5 Apr 2025Real Madrid1–2Valencia
3 Jan 2025Valencia1–2Real Madrid
2 Mar 2024Valencia2–2Real Madrid
11 Nov 2023Real Madrid5–1Valencia
21 May 2023Valencia1–0Real Madrid
2 Feb 2023Real Madrid2–0Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Madrid	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	3.20	2.60	3.13
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	46%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

	Real Madrid	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	3.20	2.60	3.13
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	46%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Madrid	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.38
Corners conceded	4.13	5.50
Match total	9.63	10.88	9.84
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	2.40	2.10
Match total	4.20	3.90	4.33
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

	Real Madrid	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	6.56	5.38
Corners conceded	4.00	5.50
Match total	10.56	10.88	9.84
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	2.50	2.10
Match total	4.40	3.90	4.33
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.41league 4.07

Red cards0.33league 0.26

Cards 5+70%league 44%

Fouls24.9league 24.7

Penalties0.22league 0.35

Home wins48%league 47%

Real Madrid2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 May 25A · Sevilla2–01
W14 May 24H · Alaves5–01

Valencia2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

L20 Apr 24H · Real Betis1–22
D23 Sep 23A · Almeria2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.