Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Real Sociedad had 7 days of rest, Alaves 5.7 and had to travel 77 km.
Away travel77 kmRest days7 · 5.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Sociedad48%
Draw25%
Alaves27%
Real Sociedad53%
Draw25%
Alaves22%
Real Sociedad50%
Draw25%
Alaves25%
Real Sociedad41%
Draw26%
Alaves33%
Real Sociedad49%
Draw24%
Alaves27%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 38
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Alaves
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
62
AttackIn forecast
48
48
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadAlaves
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
90%
Scored inContext
67%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.67
ShotsContext
11.87
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.18
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
63%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.79
OffsidesContext
2.42
12.83
Shots allowedContext
12.23
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.97
3.37
BlocksContext
4.11
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.59
66%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
439
PassesContext
419
364
Accurate passesContext
339
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.10
FoulsContext
14.90
11.53
Fouls sufferedContext
13.57
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
13.40
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.44
37%
On target shareContext
37%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.78
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.50
BlocksContext
4.50
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
66%
Save rateContext
59%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
456
PassesContext
400
384
Accurate passesContext
319
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.30
FoulsContext
15.50
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alaves
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel77 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 5.7La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 77 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.3 | 10.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
6Elustondo
2J. Aramburu
18Carlos Soler
8Beñat Turrientes
7Barrenetxea
23Brais Méndez
24L. Sučić
9O. Óskarsson
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
7Ángel Pérez
18Jon Guridi
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
22I. Diabate
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Alaves+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.80points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-4
- Scored
- 1.93
- Conceded
- 1.40
Alaves · Away
0.73points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-10
- Scored
- 0.87
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 41 of 87 · 1.41 per game | 29 of 87 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Real Sociedad wins3 draws3 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67
Over 2.522%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets44% · 33%
- 6 Dec 2025Alaves1–0Real Sociedad
- 23 Apr 2025Alaves1–0Real Sociedad
- 28 Aug 2024Real Sociedad1–2Alaves
- 31 Mar 2024Alaves0–1Real Sociedad
- 2 Jan 2024Real Sociedad1–1Alaves
- 13 Mar 2022Real Sociedad1–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.03 | 2.50 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 47% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 33% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Real Sociedad | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 9.70 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 20/30 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 16/30 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 14/30 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 2.37 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 4.60 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 16/30 | 73% 22/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 9/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Real Sociedad | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.34 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.20 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 4.25
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+37%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.21league 0.36
Home wins37%league 49%
Real Sociedad3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L13 May 25H · Celta Vigo0–13
- D21 Apr 24A · Getafe1–12
- D2 Jan 24H · Alaves1–16
Alaves7 with this referee
Record0-3-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L14 Dec 25H · Real Madrid1–22
- L26 Oct 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–13
- D30 Aug 25H · Atletico Madrid1–12
- L14 Apr 24A · Granada CF0–22
- D24 Feb 24H · Mallorca1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad30 games · scored 46 · conceded 45
2
7
0-15
7
4
16-30
10
10
31-45
9
9
46-60
7
4
61-75
11
11
76-90
Alaves30 games · scored 32 · conceded 43
6
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
4
31-45
4
8
46-60
6
7
61-75
8
13
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
6
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
