Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Sociedad48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw25.0%fair odds 3.99
Alaves26.7%fair odds 3.75
Expected goals1.71 – 1.22total 2.92
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Sociedad ↓ · Alaves → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Sociedad goals, columns Alaves goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.51
- 2–19.5%10.50
- 1–08.6%11.65
- 2–07.8%12.77
- 1–26.8%14.73
- 0–06.0%16.76
- 0–15.9%16.82
- 2–25.8%17.26
- 3–15.4%18.45
- 3–04.5%22.45
Winning margin
11.4%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 8.79
14.9%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 6.73
22.0%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 4.54
25.0%
Draw
fair 3.99
15.5%
Alaves by 1
fair 6.44
7.6%
Alaves by 2
fair 13.24
3.6%
Alaves by 3+
fair 27.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Real Sociedad goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Alaves goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 48.3% | 49.0% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.1% | +1.0 pp |
| Alaves win | 26.7% | 26.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 60.1% | -4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.2% | 61.4% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.71 | 1.82 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Alaves | 1.22 | 1.30 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Sociedad win48.3%2.07
- Draw25.0%3.99
- Alaves win26.7%3.75
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw73.3%1.36
- Double chance Real Sociedad or Alaves75.0%1.33
- Double chance Alaves or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad64.4%1.55
- Draw no bet Alaves35.6%2.81
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.555.9%1.79
- Over 3.533.6%2.98
- Over 4.517.2%5.81
- Under 1.520.5%4.88
- Under 2.544.1%2.27
- Under 3.566.4%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes58.2%1.72
- No41.8%2.39
- Yes and over 2.546.5%2.15
- Real Sociedad win and yes24.6%4.06
- Draw and yes19.1%5.24
- Alaves win and yes14.5%6.89
Team goals
- Real Sociedad over 0.581.9%1.22
- Real Sociedad over 1.550.9%1.97
- Real Sociedad over 2.524.5%4.09
- Alaves over 0.570.4%1.42
- Alaves over 1.534.3%2.91
- Alaves over 2.512.4%8.05
- Real Sociedad clean sheet29.6%3.38
- Alaves clean sheet18.1%5.51
- Real Sociedad win to nil23.7%4.23
- Alaves win to nil12.2%8.21
Handicap
- Real Sociedad −1.526.2%3.81
- Real Sociedad −2.511.4%8.79
- Alaves +1.573.8%1.36
- Alaves +2.588.6%1.13
- Alaves −1.511.1%8.98
- Real Sociedad +1.588.9%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored301
Favourite won53.8%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.574
Over 2.5 called right57.8%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 60 | 37.8% | 36.7% |
| 40–50% | 117 | 44.5% | 47.9% |
| 50–60% | 59 | 54.7% | 61.0% |
| 60–70% | 34 | 64.0% | 61.8% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 74.4% | 84.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 82.9% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 241 of 301 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5758 | 0.5692 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.2% | 42.0% |
| Favourite won | 54.4% | 54.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 241 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 301 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.