Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Real Sociedad
17th · 17 pts · 17 played
WLLLD
1–1Full time
Atletico Madrid
4th · 37 pts · 18 played
WLLWW
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 15.2 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 14.3 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days15.2 · 14.3Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real Sociedad19%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid56%
Real Sociedad20%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid56%
Real Sociedad20%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid55%
Real Sociedad15%
Draw22%
Atletico Madrid63%
Real Sociedad19%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid57%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 33
Team strength
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
86
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
62
AttackIn forecast
82
48
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
82%
Scored inContext
94%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
13.41
ShotsContext
12.78
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.61
35%
On target shareContext
44%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
8.72
65%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.85
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.94
Shots allowedContext
10.22
3.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.72
3.50
BlocksContext
2.69
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.94
63%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
443
PassesContext
500
367
Accurate passesContext
429
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.93
15.24
FoulsContext
11.11
11.82
Fouls sufferedContext
10.28
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
80%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.90
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
40%
On target shareContext
44%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
65%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.56
9.80
Shots allowedContext
11.40
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
2.50
BlocksContext
3.00
1.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
60%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
440
PassesContext
492
362
Accurate passesContext
418
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.92
15.40
FoulsContext
11.00
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest15.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest14.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.2La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 14.3La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
8Beñat Turrientes
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
23Brais Méndez
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
3M. Ruggeri
17D. Hancko
18Marc Pubill
14Marcos Llorente
10Álex Baena
6Koke
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
19J. Alvarez
9A. Sørloth
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Atletico Madrid+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.63
Atletico Madrid · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 2–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | W 5–2 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 17 of 51 · 1.00 per game | 34 of 51 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
0 Real Sociedad wins3 draws7 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 10 May 2025Atletico Madrid4–0Real Sociedad
- 6 Oct 2024Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
- 25 May 2024Real Sociedad0–2Atletico Madrid
- 8 Oct 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Real Sociedad
- 28 May 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Real Sociedad
- 3 Sep 2022Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.72 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 44% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 76% | 56% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 6% | |
| Games | 17 | 18 |
| Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.41 | 6.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 10.22 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 10/17 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 9/17 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.83 | 4.33 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 5/17 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 7.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 11.60 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.00 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 4.11
Red cards0.21league 0.27
Cards 5+39%league 46%
Fouls26.0league 24.5
Penalties0.39league 0.34
Home wins48%league 46%
Real Sociedad2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D19 Oct 25A · Celta Vigo1–13
- W9 Mar 24A · Granada CF3–22
Atletico Madrid6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W27 Oct 25A · Real Betis2–01
- D3 May 25A · Alaves0–02
- W27 Apr 24H · Athletic Club3–13
- W22 Jan 24A · Granada CF1–02
- W25 Nov 23H · Mallorca1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad17 games · scored 21 · conceded 25
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
8
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Atletico Madrid18 games · scored 33 · conceded 16
9
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
9
5
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
