Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Sociedad
17th · 17 pts · 17 played
WLLLD
1–1Full time
Atletico Madrid
4th · 37 pts · 18 played
WLLWW
Real Sociedad19.4%fair odds 5.16
Draw24.7%fair odds 4.04
Atletico Madrid55.9%fair odds 1.79
Expected goals0.93 – 1.74total 2.67
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Sociedad ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Sociedad goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.48
- 0–111.4%8.74
- 0–210.5%9.54
- 1–29.8%10.25
- 0–07.5%13.32
- 0–36.1%16.44
- 1–05.8%17.13
- 1–35.7%17.67
- 2–15.2%19.19
- 2–24.5%22.04
Winning margin
1.7%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 57.88
5.0%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 20.11
12.7%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 7.90
24.7%
Draw
fair 4.04
24.2%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.13
17.4%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 5.74
14.3%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 7.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Real Sociedad goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 19.4% | 19.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 24.7% | 23.8% | +0.9 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 55.9% | 56.8% | -0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 53.4% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.5% | 53.1% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 0.93 | 0.98 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.74 | 1.83 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Sociedad win19.4%5.16
- Draw24.7%4.04
- Atletico Madrid win55.9%1.79
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw44.1%2.27
- Double chance Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid75.3%1.33
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw80.6%1.24
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad25.7%3.89
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid74.3%1.35
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.9%2.00
- Over 3.528.0%3.58
- Over 4.513.3%7.52
- Under 1.524.8%4.03
- Under 2.550.1%2.00
- Under 3.572.0%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes50.5%1.98
- No49.5%2.02
- Yes and over 2.538.7%2.58
- Real Sociedad win and yes9.3%10.71
- Draw and yes17.2%5.80
- Atletico Madrid win and yes24.0%4.17
Team goals
- Real Sociedad over 0.560.6%1.65
- Real Sociedad over 1.523.9%4.19
- Real Sociedad over 2.56.8%14.72
- Atletico Madrid over 0.582.5%1.21
- Atletico Madrid over 1.552.0%1.92
- Atletico Madrid over 2.525.4%3.94
- Real Sociedad clean sheet17.5%5.71
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet39.4%2.54
- Real Sociedad win to nil10.0%9.98
- Atletico Madrid win to nil31.9%3.13
Handicap
- Real Sociedad −1.56.7%14.92
- Real Sociedad −2.51.7%57.88
- Atletico Madrid +1.593.3%1.07
- Atletico Madrid +2.598.3%1.02
- Atletico Madrid −1.531.7%3.16
- Real Sociedad +1.568.3%1.46
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored180
Favourite won56.1%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right60.6%
BTTS called right54.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 37.9% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 82 | 44.6% | 47.6% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.7% | 65.7% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 64.6% | 65.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.7% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 149 of 180 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5571 | 0.5539 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 57.7% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 149 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 180 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.