La Liga Gameweek 26 Sun, Feb 28 · 16:00 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Elche 18th · 7 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel572 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Real Sociedad—%
Draw—%
Elche—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

Forecast from 13 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Sociedad and Elche. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real SociedadElche
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 44
62 AttackIn forecast 39
48 DefenceIn forecast 51
81 Form indexContext 56
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real SociedadElche
1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22
1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.07
1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.85
+0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
67% Scored inContext 67%
11% Clean sheetsContext 22%
14.11 ShotsContext 11.00
5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
39% On target shareContext 38%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.44
56% Box shareContext 55%
13% ConversionContext 11%
2.14 OffsidesContext 1.83
16.56 Shots allowedContext 14.89
6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.00 BlocksContext 3.63
4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
73% Save rateContext 60%
49% PossessionIn forecast 51%
467 PassesContext 478
399 Accurate passesContext 408
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.64
12.11 FoulsContext 13.44
9.78 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 0.98
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.22
80% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.80 ShotsContext 10.20
5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
38% On target shareContext 38%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.44
55% Box shareContext 55%
14% ConversionContext 12%
1.75 OffsidesContext 1.83
15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.40
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22
3.90 BlocksContext 3.44
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
70% Save rateContext 64%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
481 PassesContext 463
410 Accurate passesContext 391
85% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.65
12.40 FoulsContext 14.10
10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,038 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts
Elche
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel572 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Villarreal0–00.7 xPts
  • D11 OctH · Celta Vigo0–01.5 xPts
  • W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Sociedad Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Feb7La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km572 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,038 km704 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal
Elche Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Villarreal (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 2Buba Sangaré
18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar
21Lucas Cepeda 24A. Osorio

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Elche Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
Elche · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
1.40
Conceded
1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentReal SociedadElche
Deportivo La Coruna W 3–2 H D 1–1 A
Celta Vigo D 0–0 H D 0–0 H
Espanyol W 2–1 H W 3–1 A
Real Madrid L 1–4 A L 2–3 H
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

8 Real Sociedad wins1 draws0 Elche wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.56 Over 2.544% Both scored44% Clean sheets56% · 0%
  • 7 Sep 2026Elche2–3Real Sociedad
  • 7 Feb 2026Real Sociedad3–1Elche
  • 7 Nov 2025Elche1–1Real Sociedad
  • 19 Mar 2023Real Sociedad2–0Elche
  • 27 Aug 2022Elche0–1Real Sociedad
  • 10 Apr 2022Elche1–2Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real SociedadElcheForecast
Scored per game 1.891.22
Conceded per game 1.891.89
Match goals 3.783.11
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 78%56%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 67%67%
Clean sheets 11%22%
Failed to score 33%33%
Games99
Real SociedadElcheForecast
Scored per game 1.901.20
Conceded per game 1.901.80
Match goals 3.803.00
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real SociedadElcheLeague
Corners
Corners won7.004.56
Corners conceded4.894.67
Match total11.899.239.91
Over 8.5100% 9/933% 3/9
Over 9.578% 7/933% 3/9
Over 10.567% 6/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.332.44
Opponent cards2.562.00
Match total4.894.444.73
Over 3.578% 7/967% 6/9
Over 4.578% 7/956% 5/9
Real SociedadElcheLeague
Corners
Corners won7.004.20
Corners conceded4.704.40
Match total11.708.609.91
Over 8.590% 9/1030% 3/10
Over 9.580% 8/1030% 3/10
Over 10.570% 7/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.202.60
Opponent cards2.402.20
Match total4.604.804.73
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.570% 7/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Sociedad9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3 0-15
3 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 7 61-75
3 5 76-90
Elche9 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 31-45
1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Athletic Club Barcelona Feb 2816:00 Malaga Atletico Madrid Feb 2816:00 Celta Vigo Espanyol Feb 2816:00 Levante Deportivo La Coruna Feb 2816:00 Real Madrid Valencia Feb 2816:00 Real Betis Villarreal Feb 2816:00 Getafe Alaves Feb 2816:00 Real Sociedad Elche Feb 2816:00 Osasuna Sevilla Feb 2816:00 Racing Santander Rayo Vallecano Feb 2816:00