Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Sociedad were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Real Sociedad had 6.7 days of rest, Oviedo 6 and had to travel 313 km.
Away travel313 kmRest days6.7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Sociedad60%
Draw24%
Oviedo16%
Real Sociedad63%
Draw22%
Oviedo15%
Real Sociedad60%
Draw24%
Oviedo16%
Real Sociedad53%
Draw26%
Oviedo21%
Real Sociedad62%
Draw22%
Oviedo16%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 37
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Oviedo
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
62
AttackIn forecast
23
48
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadOviedo
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.79
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
88%
Scored inContext
39%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.71
ShotsContext
8.96
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.74
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
5.59
64%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.80
OffsidesContext
2.52
12.54
Shots allowedContext
14.83
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.87
3.62
BlocksContext
3.57
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.43
67%
Save rateContext
76%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
421
PassesContext
375
347
Accurate passesContext
307
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.29
FoulsContext
12.48
11.79
Fouls sufferedContext
11.65
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
90%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.30
ShotsContext
10.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
40%
On target shareContext
27%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
65%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.56
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.80
BlocksContext
2.80
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
408
PassesContext
376
337
Accurate passesContext
305
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.20
FoulsContext
13.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel313 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 313 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 705 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
8Beñat Turrientes
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
23Brais Méndez
15Pablo Marín
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
23N. Fonseca
6Kwasi Sibo
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Oviedo+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.42
Oviedo · Away
0.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-8
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 2.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 31 of 69 · 1.35 per game | 13 of 66 · 0.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Real Sociedad wins0 draws1 Oviedo wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 30 Aug 2025Oviedo1–0Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.13 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 35% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 61% | |
| Games | 24 | 23 |
| Real Sociedad | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 3.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.42 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.22 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 14/24 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 12/24 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 3.65 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 15/24 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 8/24 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Real Sociedad | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.70 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.60 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.51league 4.17
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+54%league 46%
Fouls25.4league 24.6
Penalties0.19league 0.38
Home wins38%league 47%
Real Sociedad4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W1 Nov 25H · Athletic Club3–21
- L26 Apr 24H · Real Madrid0–13
- L13 Jan 24A · Athletic Club1–24
- L8 Oct 23A · Atletico Madrid1–23
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Oct 25H · Levante0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad24 games · scored 34 · conceded 35
1
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
9
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
8
76-90
Oviedo22 games · scored 13 · conceded 36
3
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
8
61-75
3
9
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
