Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano – 5 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 5 · 17:30 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 19th · 5 pts · 7 played LLLWL

0–1Full time

Rayo Vallecano 17th · 5 pts · 7 played DLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Sociedad were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 7 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 7.2 and had to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real Sociedad42%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano31%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.19

Real Sociedad44%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Real Sociedad43%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano29%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.15

Real Sociedad35%

Draw28%

Rayo Vallecano37%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.34

Real Sociedad43%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.23

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla

Cards per match 6.3
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 3

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

62 AttackIn forecast 61

48 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Rayo Vallecano

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

86% Scored inContext 57%

14% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.00 ShotsContext 13.14

4.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

30% On target shareContext 35%

9.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.43

65% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.60 OffsidesContext 3.17

15.00 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

4.83 BlocksContext 2.86

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17

66% Save rateContext 66%

52% PossessionIn forecast 55%

446 PassesContext 455

374 Accurate passesContext 382

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.80

15.00 FoulsContext 11.86

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.14

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.71

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.40 ShotsContext 14.30

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

32% On target shareContext 39%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

68% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 10%

2.71 OffsidesContext 3.56

13.60 Shots allowedContext 8.00

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.78 BlocksContext 2.44

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

66% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 60%

450 PassesContext 498

382 Accurate passesContext 424

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.91

14.00 FoulsContext 11.80

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km803 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rayo Vallecano

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep	7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	803 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Álex Remiro(G)

17Sergio Gómez 16D. Ćaleta-Car 5Zubeldia 2J. Aramburu

4Jon Gorrotxategi

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 23Brais Méndez 11Gonçalo Guedes

10Mikel Oyarzabal

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 24F. Lejeune 6P. Ciss 2A. Rațiu

23Óscar Valentín 17Unai López

18Álvaro García 7Isi Palazón 19Jorge de Frutos

9Alemão

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad-1.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Rayo Vallecano+1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Rayo Vallecano · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Real Sociedad wins4 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 13%

16 Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Sociedad
18 Aug 2024Real Sociedad1–2Rayo Vallecano
27 Jan 2024Real Sociedad0–0Rayo Vallecano
29 Oct 2023Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Sociedad
22 Apr 2023Real Sociedad2–1Rayo Vallecano
21 Jan 2023Rayo Vallecano0–2Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.57	1.43
Match goals	2.57	2.43	2.63
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	49%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	54%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.57	1.43
Match goals	2.57	2.43	2.63
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	49%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	54%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	7.29	6.86
Corners conceded	4.57	4.43
Match total	11.86	11.29	9.72
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.86
Opponent cards	1.86	1.57
Match total	4.29	4.43	4.38
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	57% 4/7

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	7.80	7.25
Corners conceded	4.60	4.25
Match total	12.40	11.50	9.72
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.20
Opponent cards	1.70	1.70
Match total	3.80	3.90	4.38
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.00league 4.10

Red cards0.33league 0.29

Cards 5+100%league 47%

Fouls23.0league 24.5

Penalties0.00league 0.34

Home wins33%league 51%

Real Sociedad

No previous matches with this referee.

Rayo Vallecano

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.