UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 22 · 20:00 Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim
Red Bull Salzburg 31st · 3 pts · 6 played
3–1Full time
FC Basel 1893 26th · 6 pts · 6 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Red Bull Salzburg were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on FC Basel 1893. Red Bull Salzburg had 42 days of rest, FC Basel 1893 42 and had to travel 405 km.

Away travel405 kmRest days42 · 42Matches / 14d0 · 0
Red Bull Salzburg45%
Draw26%
FC Basel 189328%
Expected goals 1.58 – 1.21
Red Bull Salzburg44%
Draw27%
FC Basel 189330%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19
Red Bull Salzburg44%
Draw26%
FC Basel 189329%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.22
Red Bull Salzburg38%
Draw27%
FC Basel 189335%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.35
Red Bull Salzburg45%
Draw27%
FC Basel 189329%
Expected goals 1.53 – 1.18
Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wals-Siezenheim)

No weather data yet

Referee · GreeceAnastasios Papapetrou
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 49

Team strength

Red Bull SalzburgFC Basel 1893
44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 41
36 AttackIn forecast 36
29 DefenceIn forecast 42
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Basel 1893

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Red Bull SalzburgFC Basel 1893
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.51
2.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21
-0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
50% Scored inContext 83%
17% Clean sheetsContext 17%
11.50 ShotsContext 13.50
4.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
36% On target shareContext 32%
6.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.17
59% Box shareContext 60%
7% ConversionContext 10%
2.17 OffsidesContext 3.67
17.83 Shots allowedContext 15.67
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.83
4.00 BlocksContext 4.67
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
67% Save rateContext 77%
44% PossessionIn forecast 48%
408 PassesContext 417
334 Accurate passesContext 344
82% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.88
10.67 FoulsContext 13.50
9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.51
2.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
90% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
12.10 ShotsContext 13.30
5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
43% On target shareContext 34%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
70% Box shareContext 57%
15% ConversionContext 9%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.67
15.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
4.11 BlocksContext 3.90
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
71% Save rateContext 72%
54% PossessionIn forecast 50%
463 PassesContext 427
373 Accurate passesContext 354
81% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.84
9.80 FoulsContext 13.50
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Red Bull Salzburg
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FC Basel 1893
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel405 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Red Bull Salzburg FC Basel 1893
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km405 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Red Bull Salzburg Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1A. Schlager(G)
13F. Krätzig 44J. Schuster 23J. Gadou 37T. Trummer
5S. Diabaté 18M. Bidstrup 8S. Kitano
27Kerim Alajbegović 11Y. Vertessen 20E. Baidoo
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
FC Basel 1893 Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Hitz(G)
31D. Schmid 24F. Daniliuc 32J. Adjetey 3N. Vouilloz
22L. Leroy 14A. Bacanin
11B. Traoré 10X. Shaqiri 9J. Agbonifo
46Kaio Eduardo
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Red Bull Salzburg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Basel 1893 Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Red Bull Salzburg+1.2 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • FC Basel 1893-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Red Bull Salzburg · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33
FC Basel 1893 · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentRed Bull SalzburgFC Basel 1893
SC Freiburg L 0–1 A L 1–2 A
Lyon L 0–2 A L 0–2 A
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Red Bull SalzburgFC Basel 1893Forecast
Scored per game 0.831.33
Conceded per game 1.831.50
Match goals 2.672.83 2.79
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 33%67% 53%
Over 3.5 33%17%
Both teams scored 33%67% 56%
Clean sheets 17%17%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66
Red Bull SalzburgFC Basel 1893Forecast
Scored per game 0.831.33
Conceded per game 1.831.50
Match goals 2.672.83 2.79
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 33%67% 53%
Over 3.5 33%17%
Both teams scored 33%67% 56%
Clean sheets 17%17%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Red Bull SalzburgFC Basel 1893League
Corners
Corners won2.333.67
Corners conceded5.334.67
Match total7.668.349.10
Over 8.533% 2/633% 2/6
Over 9.533% 2/633% 2/6
Over 10.517% 1/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.501.83
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total3.004.334.35
Over 3.533% 2/667% 4/6
Over 4.517% 1/650% 3/6
Red Bull SalzburgFC Basel 1893League
Corners
Corners won3.503.80
Corners conceded5.104.50
Match total8.608.309.10
Over 8.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Over 10.530% 3/1010% 1/10
Cards
Cards1.702.20
Opponent cards1.602.50
Match total3.304.704.35
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anastasios Papapetrou Greece · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.24league 4.12
Red cards0.16league 0.21
Cards 5+43%league 42%
Fouls26.3league 24.2
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins41%league 49%
Red Bull Salzburg

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Basel 1893

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Red Bull Salzburg6 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 7 46-60
1 61-75
1 2 76-90
FC Basel 18936 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1 3 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
5 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
FC Basel 189310 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 4 31-45
1 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
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