Red Bull Salzburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Red Bull Salzburg28.9%fair odds 3.46
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
FC Porto45.6%fair odds 2.19
Expected goals1.26 – 1.64total 2.90
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Red Bull Salzburg ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Red Bull Salzburg goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.35
- 1–29.3%10.73
- 0–18.4%11.89
- 0–27.4%13.55
- 2–17.2%13.94
- 1–06.3%15.77
- 0–06.1%16.38
- 2–25.9%17.01
- 1–35.1%19.66
- 2–04.4%22.83
Winning margin
4.1%
Red Bull Salzburg by 3+
fair 24.16
8.3%
Red Bull Salzburg by 2
fair 12.05
16.5%
Red Bull Salzburg by 1
fair 6.07
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
21.6%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.64
14.0%
FC Porto by 2
fair 7.15
10.1%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 9.93
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Red Bull Salzburg goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
9%3
4%4+
FC Porto goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 28.9% | 28.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.6% | -1.2 pp |
| FC Porto win | 45.6% | 44.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 50.6% | +4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 54.7% | +3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg | 1.26 | 1.17 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 1.64 | 1.52 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Red Bull Salzburg win28.9%3.46
- Draw25.5%3.92
- FC Porto win45.6%2.19
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or draw54.4%1.84
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or FC Porto74.5%1.34
- Double chance FC Porto or draw71.1%1.41
- Draw no bet Red Bull Salzburg38.8%2.58
- Draw no bet FC Porto61.2%1.63
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.4%1.80
- Over 3.533.0%3.03
- Over 4.516.8%5.94
- Under 1.520.9%4.80
- Under 2.544.6%2.24
- Under 3.567.0%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes58.4%1.71
- No41.6%2.40
- Yes and over 2.546.4%2.16
- Red Bull Salzburg win and yes15.6%6.42
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- FC Porto win and yes23.4%4.27
Team goals
- Red Bull Salzburg over 0.571.7%1.39
- Red Bull Salzburg over 1.536.0%2.78
- Red Bull Salzburg over 2.513.4%7.45
- FC Porto over 0.580.6%1.24
- FC Porto over 1.548.7%2.05
- FC Porto over 2.522.7%4.41
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet19.4%5.15
- FC Porto clean sheet28.3%3.53
- Red Bull Salzburg win to nil13.3%7.50
- FC Porto win to nil22.2%4.50
Handicap
- Red Bull Salzburg −1.512.4%8.04
- Red Bull Salzburg −2.54.1%24.16
- FC Porto +1.587.6%1.14
- FC Porto +2.595.9%1.04
- FC Porto −1.524.1%4.16
- Red Bull Salzburg +1.575.9%1.32
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.601
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.9% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 50.6% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 64.1% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.