Red Bull Salzburg vs FC Porto – 25 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 25 · 20:00 Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim

Red Bull Salzburg

0–1Full time

FC Porto

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 45). Red Bull Salzburg had ? days of rest, FC Porto 6 and had to travel 1,856 km.

Away travel1,856 kmRest days? · 6Matches / 14d0 · 2

Red Bull Salzburg29%

Draw26%

FC Porto46%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.64

Red Bull Salzburg29%

Draw27%

FC Porto45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.52

Red Bull Salzburg29%

Draw25%

FC Porto46%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.64

Red Bull Salzburg23%

Draw24%

FC Porto53%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.84

Red Bull Salzburg29%

Draw27%

FC Porto45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.52

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Wals-Siezenheim)

No weather data yet

RefereeVassilis Fotias

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 33

Team strength

Red Bull Salzburg

FC Porto

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

36 AttackIn forecast 74

29 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Red Bull Salzburg

FC Porto

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.71

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

— Goals minus xGContext +0.59

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

17.00 ShotsContext 14.70

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

33% On target shareContext 38%

11.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.90

65% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 16%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.67

12.90 Shots allowedContext 9.30

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.89

3.67 BlocksContext 3.00

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

67% Save rateContext 77%

59% PossessionIn forecast 59%

514 PassesContext 479

437 Accurate passesContext 416

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.11

7.60 FoulsContext 14.40

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Red Bull Salzburg

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,856 km51 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Red Bull Salzburg	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,856 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	51 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Red Bull Salzburg Confirmed XI

4-2-2-2

1A. Schlager(G)

3A. Terzić 2J. Rasmussen 23J. Gadou 22S. Lainer

5S. Diabaté 18M. Bidstrup

27Kerim Alajbegović 49M. Yeo

20E. Baidoo 21P. Ratkov

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 13P. Rosario

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

17Borja Sainz 9Samu Omorodion 11Pepê

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Red Bull Salzburg Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Red Bull Salzburg+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Red Bull Salzburg · Home No home games yet this season.

FC Porto · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Red Bull Salzburg	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.90
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	55%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Red Bull Salzburg	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	—	2.50
Conceded per game	—	0.17
Match goals	—	2.67	2.90
Over 1.5	—	83%
Over 2.5	—	67%	55%
Over 3.5	—	17%
Both teams scored	—	17%	58%
Clean sheets	—	83%
Failed to score	—	0%
Games	0	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Red Bull Salzburg	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.18
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.55
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Red Bull Salzburg	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.56
Corners conceded	4.00	3.78
Match total	8.80	10.34	9.18
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.40
Opponent cards	2.10	3.40
Match total	3.50	5.80	4.55
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Vassilis Fotias 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.58league 4.55

Red cards0.27league 0.00

Cards 5+52%league 55%

Fouls24.8league 25.2

Penalties0.42league 0.18

Home wins45%league 45%

Red Bull Salzburg

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.