Rennes vs Lorient – 24 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 24 · 16:00 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 6th · 31 pts · 18 played WLWWD

0–2Full time

Lorient 12th · 22 pts · 18 played WWDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes were slight favourites.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 28). Rennes had 6 days of rest, Lorient 7.9 and had to travel 133 km.

Away travel133 kmRest days6 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rennes57%

Draw24%

Lorient19%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.96

Rennes56%

Draw24%

Lorient20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Rennes56%

Draw24%

Lorient19%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.95

Rennes49%

Draw26%

Lorient25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.07

Rennes57%

Draw24%

Lorient19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.99

Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceClement Turpin

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 130

Team strength

Rennes

Lorient

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

63 AttackIn forecast 28

39 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Lorient

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.28

1.39 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

83% Scored inContext 67%

28% Clean sheetsContext 17%

12.61 ShotsContext 11.83

4.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.72

37% On target shareContext 32%

8.06 Shots in the boxContext 7.72

61% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.56 Shots allowedContext 9.67

3.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.41 BlocksContext 2.63

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

73% Save rateContext 63%

51% PossessionIn forecast 43%

454 PassesContext 400

387 Accurate passesContext 338

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.44 FoulsContext 10.06

11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 14.06

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 12.20

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

39% On target shareContext 27%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

57% Box shareContext 62%

15% ConversionContext 9%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.14

13.50 Shots allowedContext 9.30

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.50 BlocksContext 2.50

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

74% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 42%

436 PassesContext 390

368 Accurate passesContext 330

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.10 FoulsContext 8.30

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 0.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel133 km1,895 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan	7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	133 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,895 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

3-5-2

30B. Samba(G)

3L. Brassier 97J. Jacquet 36A. Seidu

26Q. Merlin 45M. Camara 6D. Cissé 21V. Rongier 95P. Frankowski

9E. Lepaul 7B. Embolo

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

2Igor Silva 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 8Noah Cadiou 11T. Le Bris

29D. Karim 17J. Makengo

12B. Dieng

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Lorient-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 2.00points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-1
Scored: 2.11
Conceded: 1.00

Lorient · Away 0.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-5
Scored: 0.56
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Rennes	Lorient
LE Havre	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 A
Lille	W 2–0 A	L 1–7 H
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–1 H	D 3–3 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–5 A	D 1–1 H
Metz	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Monaco	W 4–1 H	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H
Paris FC	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Strasbourg	W 4–1 H	D 0–0 A
Toulouse	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
Nice	L 1–2 H	W 3–1 H
Auxerre	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Lens	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 A
Nantes	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 A
Lyon	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
Angers	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Marseille	W 1–0 H	L 0–4 A
Points	31 of 51 · 1.82 per game	19 of 51 · 1.12 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Rennes wins0 draws5 Lorient wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.57 Over 2.571% Both scored43% Clean sheets29% · 29%

24 Aug 2025Lorient4–0Rennes
3 Mar 2024Rennes1–2Lorient
22 Oct 2023Lorient2–1Rennes
27 Jan 2023Lorient2–1Rennes
7 Aug 2022Rennes0–1Lorient
24 Apr 2022Rennes5–0Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.28
Conceded per game	1.39	1.67
Match goals	3.06	2.94	2.77
Over 1.5	78%	83%
Over 2.5	61%	44%	52%
Over 3.5	56%	39%
Both teams scored	61%	56%	52%
Clean sheets	28%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	18	18

	Rennes	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	3.20	2.20	2.77
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	52%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.38
Corners conceded	4.78	4.50
Match total	10.28	7.88	9.32
Over 8.5	72% 13/18	31% 5/16
Over 9.5	56% 10/18	25% 4/16
Over 10.5	44% 8/18	19% 3/16
Cards
Cards	1.89	1.89
Opponent cards	2.39	2.06
Match total	4.28	3.95	3.98
Over 3.5	67% 12/18	56% 10/18
Over 4.5	50% 9/18	39% 7/18

	Rennes	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	3.56
Corners conceded	5.40	5.00
Match total	11.80	8.56	9.32
Over 8.5	100% 10/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	0.70
Opponent cards	1.90	1.80
Match total	3.70	2.50	3.98
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Clement Turpin France · 130 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.25league 3.63

Red cards0.24league 0.33

Cards 5+29%league 36%

Fouls23.1league 24.1

Penalties0.35league 0.44

Home wins39%league 50%

Rennes7 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds3

D29 Oct 25A · Toulouse2–23
L9 Dec 23H · Monaco1–22
L5 Nov 23A · Nice0–23
W27 May 23H · Monaco2–00
L1 Apr 23H · Lens0–12

Lorient5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 2

W19 May 24H · Clermont Foot5–03
D8 Oct 23A · Lyon3–30
W12 Mar 23H · Estac Troyes2–00
L30 Oct 22H · Nice1–20
W10 Sep 21H · Lille2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.