Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were clear favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Metz. Rennes had 6.9 days of rest, Metz 7 and had to travel 585 km.
Away travel585 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rennes68%
Draw20%
Metz12%
Rennes71%
Draw19%
Metz11%
Rennes68%
Draw20%
Metz12%
Rennes61%
Draw23%
Metz16%
Rennes68%
Draw20%
Metz12%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 81
Team strength
Rennes
Metz
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
63
AttackIn forecast
11
39
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesMetz
1.65
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.31
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
81%
Scored inContext
58%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
12.62
ShotsContext
9.19
4.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.62
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.09
61%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.68
12.73
Shots allowedContext
14.54
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.54
4.04
BlocksContext
3.48
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
72%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
468
PassesContext
447
398
Accurate passesContext
385
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.12
FoulsContext
11.12
11.42
Fouls sufferedContext
11.04
1.65
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.70
ShotsContext
10.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
32%
On target shareContext
27%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
60%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.70
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.30
BlocksContext
4.40
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
73%
Save rateContext
59%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
498
PassesContext
452
423
Accurate passesContext
391
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.90
FoulsContext
11.80
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,694 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Metz
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel585 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 585 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,694 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
95P. Frankowski
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
17S. Szymański
70A. Nordin
9E. Lepaul
10L. Blas
Metz
Confirmed XI
61P. Sy(G)
2M. Colin
15T. Yegbe
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
12Alpha Touré
5J. Gbamin
7G. Tsitaishvili
20J. Deminguet
70B. Sarr
30M. Diallo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Metz-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 1.85
- Conceded
- 1.08
Metz · Away
0.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-11
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 2.85
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A |
| Nice | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Lens | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Monaco | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H | L 2–5 A |
| Lorient | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Strasbourg | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 40 of 75 · 1.60 per game | 13 of 75 · 0.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Rennes wins0 draws0 Metz wins
Goals per game3.60 – 0.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 28 Nov 2025Metz0–1Rennes
- 4 May 2024Metz2–3Rennes
- 13 Aug 2023Rennes5–1Metz
- 20 Mar 2022Rennes6–1Metz
- 17 Oct 2021Metz0–3Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.65 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 2.31 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 3.27 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 62% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 42% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Rennes | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 4.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.84 | |
| Match total | 9.73 | 8.92 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 15/26 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 16% 4/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 4.08 | 3.11 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 12/26 | 23% 6/26 | |
| Rennes | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.33 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.71
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+38%league 37%
Fouls25.0league 23.8
Penalties0.40league 0.37
Home wins40%league 48%
Rennes10 with this referee
Record5-4-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D28 Sep 25H · Lens0–03
- D19 Oct 24A · Stade Brestois 291–12
- D25 Feb 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–13
- W13 Jan 24H · Nice2–01
- W19 Feb 23H · Clermont Foot2–00
Metz2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D18 Feb 22A · Lille0–04
- L5 Dec 21A · Monaco0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes26 games · scored 43 · conceded 37
4
5
0-15
12
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
9
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
10
10
76-90
Metz26 games · scored 25 · conceded 60
3
9
0-15
4
7
16-30
4
13
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
10
18
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 8 · conceded 23
6
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
