Rennes vs OFI – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 19th · 1 pts · 1 played D

2–1Full time

OFI 13th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes were clear favourites.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OFI. Rennes were without Q. Merlin. OFI were without C. Sielis. Rennes had 4.2 days of rest, OFI 28.1 and had to travel 2,620 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,620 kmRest days4.2 · 28.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

Rennes69%

Draw17%

OFI14%

Expected goals 2.56 – 1.08

Rennes66%

Draw20%

OFI14%

Expected goals 2.10 – 0.85

Rennes69%

Draw17%

OFI14%

Expected goals 2.52 – 1.05

Rennes62%

Draw19%

OFI19%

Expected goals 2.28 – 1.21

Rennes69%

Draw17%

OFI14%

Expected goals 2.55 – 1.10

Over 2.5 70% Both score 61% Likeliest score 2–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

20°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 77%

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 75

Team strength

Rennes

OFI

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

63 AttackIn forecast 18

39 DefenceIn forecast 25

70 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack+21%

Defense risk−22%

OFI

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

OFI

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 0.80

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.80

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.10 ShotsContext 6.63

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

33% On target shareContext 42%

11.80 Shots in the boxContext 4.43

67% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 21%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.67

15.40 Shots allowedContext 18.00

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

4.70 BlocksContext 4.50

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00

70% Save rateContext 86%

53% PossessionIn forecast 46%

457 PassesContext 386

384 Accurate passesContext 304

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.10 FoulsContext 11.90

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes WWDLW

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected

W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts
L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts
W11 SepH · Marseille1–01.6 xPts
W6 SepA · Angers2–11.7 xPts

OFI W

Rest28.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,620 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 63 · 3 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected

W17 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim2–00.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	OFI
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Oct	28.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,620 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30B. Samba(G)

18M. Nagida 48A. Aït Boudlal 4C. Cresswell 95P. Frankowski

45M. Camara 21V. Rongier 17S. Szymański

11Mousa Al Ta'mari 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

OFI Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31N. Christogeorgos(G)

2K. Krizmanić 43D. Nikolaou 15A. Poungouras

3N. Athanasiou 41A. Bouchalakis 14T. Androutsos 24L. Dickmann

18T. Nuss 19K. Kodro 11T. Fountas

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −4.1% · Defence line −12.0% of weighted minutes

DEF Q. Merlin Starter 6.76 Def −12.0%
ATT A. Nordin Rotation 6.61 Att −4.1%

OFI Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −3.2% · Defence line −9.9% of weighted minutes

DEF C. Sielis Starter — Def −8.4%
ATT A. Leya Rotation 6.58 Att −3.2%
DEF N. Marinakis Rotation 6.32 Def −1.4%

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
OFI+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home No home games yet this season.

OFI · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	OFI	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	0.00	2.00	3.64
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	70%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	61%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Rennes	OFI	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	2.33
Conceded per game	1.80	0.00
Match goals	3.50	2.33	3.64
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	33%	70%
Over 3.5	60%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	0%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	100%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	OFI	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.00
Corners conceded	5.00	8.00
Match total	9.00	12.00	9.67
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	3.00	5.00	3.71
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Rennes	OFI	League
Corners
Corners won	7.11	3.13
Corners conceded	5.44	6.50
Match total	12.55	9.63	9.67
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.10	2.90
Match total	3.80	4.70	3.71
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 75 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.59league 3.58

Red cards0.16league 0.12

Cards 5+51%league 38%

Fouls24.7league 24.7

Penalties0.16league 0.23

Home wins40%league 38%

Rennes

No previous matches with this referee.

OFI

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.