Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Rennes had 7 days of rest, Paris FC 7.2 and had to travel 308 km.
Away travel308 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rennes56%
Draw22%
Paris FC22%
Rennes61%
Draw23%
Paris FC17%
Rennes57%
Draw22%
Paris FC21%
Rennes48%
Draw24%
Paris FC28%
Rennes55%
Draw23%
Paris FC22%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 90
Team strength
Rennes
Paris FC
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
46
39
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesParis FC
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
81%
Scored inContext
72%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.47
ShotsContext
11.28
4.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
36%
On target shareContext
34%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
7.53
62%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.56
12.47
Shots allowedContext
11.88
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
3.87
BlocksContext
3.63
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
71%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
471
PassesContext
464
401
Accurate passesContext
395
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.13
FoulsContext
10.38
11.63
Fouls sufferedContext
10.63
1.72
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.90
ShotsContext
11.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
40%
On target shareContext
38%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
62%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.90
BlocksContext
3.80
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
77%
Save rateContext
86%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
521
PassesContext
378
445
Accurate passesContext
307
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.80
FoulsContext
8.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,133 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel308 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,133 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
24A. Rouault
48A. Aït Boudlal
18M. Nagida
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
17S. Szymański
10L. Blas
9E. Lepaul
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
14H. Traoré
23R. Matondo
33P. Lees-Melou
24L. Koleosho
10I. Kebbal
7Alimami Gory
9W. Geubbels
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Paris FC+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
1.94points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Paris FC · Away
1.19points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-5
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 2–4 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–0 AW 4–1 H | D 0–0 AL 2–3 H |
| Angers | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 4–3 AW 3–1 H | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Metz | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Lille | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 HL 2–4 A |
| Nice | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Auxerre | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lens | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Monaco | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H | W 4–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Lorient | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Points | 53 of 93 · 1.71 per game | 41 of 93 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Rennes wins0 draws0 Paris FC wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 7 Nov 2025Paris FC0–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.84 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 53% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 59% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 28% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Rennes | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.60 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.69 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 5.28 | |
| Match total | 10.07 | 9.72 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 21/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 18/32 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 14/32 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 3.72 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 19/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 14/32 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Rennes | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 11.50 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 3.68
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+41%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 23.6
Penalties0.26league 0.37
Home wins39%league 47%
Rennes10 with this referee
Record6-0-4
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 25H · Strasbourg4–11
- W30 Mar 25A · Angers3–00
- L18 Jan 25H · Stade Brestois 291–22
- L5 Oct 24H · Monaco1–22
- W26 Jan 24A · Lyon3–22
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Jan 26H · Angers0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes32 games · scored 56 · conceded 46
7
6
0-15
15
1
16-30
5
10
31-45
12
9
46-60
6
10
61-75
11
10
76-90
Paris FC32 games · scored 44 · conceded 47
7
3
0-15
9
9
16-30
5
9
31-45
4
9
46-60
7
4
61-75
12
13
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
4
2
0-15
7
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
