Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were slight favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Toulouse. Rennes had 6.1 days of rest, Toulouse 6.9 and had to travel 556 km.
Away travel556 kmRest days6.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rennes50%
Draw25%
Toulouse25%
Rennes50%
Draw26%
Toulouse24%
Rennes48%
Draw26%
Toulouse26%
Rennes42%
Draw26%
Toulouse31%
Rennes50%
Draw25%
Toulouse25%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 82
Team strength
Rennes
Toulouse
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
63
AttackIn forecast
45
39
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesToulouse
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
78%
Scored inContext
70%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
12.78
ShotsContext
13.00
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.05
Shots in the boxContext
9.38
61%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.41
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.26
Shots allowedContext
10.74
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.23
BlocksContext
3.18
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.45
70%
Save rateContext
66%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
449
PassesContext
365
381
Accurate passesContext
299
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.26
FoulsContext
14.13
11.74
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
12.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
32%
On target shareContext
44%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
57%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.70
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.60
BlocksContext
2.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
71%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
442
PassesContext
380
372
Accurate passesContext
313
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.40
FoulsContext
14.40
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km784 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel556 km1,325 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 556 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 784 km | 1,325 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
18M. Nagida
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
70A. Nordin
17S. Szymański
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
9E. Lepaul
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
3M. McKenzie
4C. Cresswell
19D. Sidibé
24D. Methalie
18Pape Diop
45A. Vossah
12W. Kamanzi
10G. Gboho
7Julián Vignolo
11S. Hidalgo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+2.3 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Toulouse-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
1.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.09
Toulouse · Away
1.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-5
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A | L 3–6 H |
| Lens | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Monaco | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Lille | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Metz | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Strasbourg | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | L 1–2 H | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 36 of 66 · 1.64 per game | 30 of 66 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Rennes wins2 draws4 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 29 Oct 2025Toulouse2–2Rennes
- 3 May 2025Toulouse2–1Rennes
- 10 Nov 2024Rennes0–2Toulouse
- 13 Apr 2024Rennes1–2Toulouse
- 17 Dec 2023Toulouse0–0Rennes
- 12 Feb 2023Toulouse3–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.61 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 48% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 30% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Rennes | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.39 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 4.87 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.83 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 10/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.87 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.52 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 11/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Rennes | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.40 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.68
Red cards0.23league 0.29
Cards 5+32%league 37%
Fouls24.7league 24.0
Penalties0.26league 0.40
Home wins50%league 49%
Rennes12 with this referee
Record5-2-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D18 Jan 26H · LE Havre1–11
- L15 Mar 25A · Lens0–11
- W2 Feb 25H · Strasbourg1–03
- L7 Apr 24A · Monaco0–12
- L12 Nov 23H · Lyon0–14
Toulouse7 with this referee
Record3-0-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W6 Dec 25H · Strasbourg1–03
- L7 Dec 24A · Monaco0–22
- L31 Aug 24H · Marseille1–35
- W3 Jun 23A · Monaco2–12
- L2 Apr 23A · Stade Brestois 291–35
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes23 games · scored 37 · conceded 35
3
4
0-15
10
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
10
76-90
Toulouse23 games · scored 33 · conceded 27
4
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
11
6
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
