Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estrela. Rio Ave had 8.1 days of rest, Estrela 3.9 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days8.1 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rio Ave37%
Draw26%
Estrela37%
Rio Ave44%
Draw26%
Estrela31%
Rio Ave37%
Draw26%
Estrela37%
Rio Ave30%
Draw25%
Estrela44%
Rio Ave37%
Draw25%
Estrela37%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Rio Ave
Estrela
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
18
AttackIn forecast
24
21
DefenceIn forecast
27
21
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveEstrela
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
20%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
6.60
ShotsContext
11.00
2.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
27%
On target shareContext
42%
3.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
41%
Box shareContext
71%
6%
ConversionContext
20%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.00
Shots allowedContext
12.20
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.20
BlocksContext
2.20
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
358
PassesContext
357
293
Accurate passesContext
291
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.76
8.00
FoulsContext
11.40
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
40%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.30
ShotsContext
10.00
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
31%
On target shareContext
37%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
54%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.20
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.80
BlocksContext
2.90
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
64%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
368
PassesContext
330
300
Accurate passesContext
262
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.30
FoulsContext
12.30
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
LLWLL
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,006 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Estrela
DDWDW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 9 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 3.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 10 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,006 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
24Pedro Amaral
3S. Garcia
23F. Petrasso
20João Tomé
5A. Ntoi
44T. Nikitscher
7Diogo Bezerra
79M. Patricio
80S. Clemmensen
11Jalen Blesa
Estrela
Confirmed XI
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Patrick Luan
21M. Scholze
39G. Doue
78Santiago Serra
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Estrela · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Rio Ave wins2 draws1 Estrela wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 15 Mar 2026Rio Ave2–1Estrela
- 25 Oct 2025Estrela1–2Rio Ave
- 5 May 2025Rio Ave2–0Estrela
- 23 Dec 2024Estrela1–0Rio Ave
- 14 Apr 2024Estrela2–2Rio Ave
- 2 Dec 2023Rio Ave1–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Rio Ave | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 4.40 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Rio Ave | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.01 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 5.20 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Rio Ave5 games · scored 2 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Estrela5 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
