Rio Ave vs FC Porto – 19 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 6 Fri, Sep 19 · 20:15 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave 15th · 3 pts · 4 played DDDL

0–3Full time

FC Porto 1st · 15 pts · 5 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 25). FC Porto usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Rio Ave had 6.2 days of rest, FC Porto 6.1 and had to travel 25 km.

Away travel25 kmRest days6.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rio Ave18%

Draw24%

FC Porto58%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.81

Rio Ave19%

Draw24%

FC Porto57%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.85

Rio Ave18%

Draw24%

FC Porto58%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.81

Rio Ave14%

Draw21%

FC Porto65%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.03

Rio Ave19%

Draw24%

FC Porto57%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.85

Over 2.5 52% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila do Conde)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 10

Team strength

Rio Ave

FC Porto

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

18 AttackIn forecast 74

21 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rio Ave

FC Porto

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

2.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.20

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.57

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 80%

13.25 ShotsContext 15.20

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

42% On target shareContext 41%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

66% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 16%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.00 Shots allowedContext 10.40

6.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

3.00 BlocksContext 4.00

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.75

67% Save rateContext 88%

46% PossessionIn forecast 56%

373 PassesContext 448

308 Accurate passesContext 386

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.07

13.50 FoulsContext 13.80

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 5 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.60 ShotsContext 13.60

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

42% On target shareContext 40%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

66% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 16%

2.88 OffsidesContext 1.60

13.70 Shots allowedContext 9.90

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.22

3.40 BlocksContext 2.90

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

68% Save rateContext 76%

47% PossessionIn forecast 60%

349 PassesContext 479

282 Accurate passesContext 414

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.89 Team ratingContext 7.10

14.20 FoulsContext 14.30

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km68 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel25 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rio Ave	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	25 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	68 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1C. Miszta(G)

6N. Abbey 32J. Brabec 5A. Ntoi

3N. Athanasiou 10B. Aguilera 54G. Liavas 17M. Vrousai

18D. Špikić 9Clayton 11André Luiz

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 13P. Rosario

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

17Borja Sainz 9Samu Omorodion 11Pepê

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home 1.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

FC Porto · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Rio Ave	FC Porto
Nacional	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Rio Ave wins2 draws3 FC Porto wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.33 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 50%

3 Feb 2025Rio Ave2–2FC Porto
24 Aug 2024FC Porto2–0Rio Ave
3 Feb 2024FC Porto0–0Rio Ave
28 Aug 2023Rio Ave1–2FC Porto
18 Feb 2023FC Porto1–0Rio Ave
28 Aug 2022Rio Ave3–1FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	2.40
Conceded per game	2.25	0.20
Match goals	4.00	2.60	2.74
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	75%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	75%	20%
Both teams scored	100%	20%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	80%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	5

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	2.40
Conceded per game	2.25	0.20
Match goals	4.00	2.60	2.74
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	75%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	75%	20%
Both teams scored	100%	20%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	80%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	2.75	5.40
Corners conceded	5.75	3.40
Match total	8.50	8.80	9.15
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	1.75	3.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.60
Match total	4.25	5.60	5.15
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	100% 5/5
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	60% 3/5

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.89
Corners conceded	5.20	4.11
Match total	8.70	10.00	9.15
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.60
Opponent cards	2.40	3.50
Match total	4.70	6.10	5.15
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 5.05

Red cards0.10league 0.18

Cards 5+50%league 61%

Fouls28.4league 27.4

Penalties0.20league 0.30

Home wins40%league 34%

Rio Ave

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.