Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rio Ave14.7%fair odds 6.79
Draw21.6%fair odds 4.63
FC Porto63.7%fair odds 1.57
Expected goals0.87 – 2.02total 2.88
Likeliest score0–211.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rio Ave ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rio Ave goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.4%8.78
- 0–110.8%9.29
- 1–110.3%9.72
- 1–29.9%10.14
- 0–37.7%13.06
- 1–36.6%15.07
- 0–06.1%16.38
- 1–04.3%23.14
- 2–24.3%23.42
- 2–14.2%23.64
Winning margin
1.1%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 87.77
3.6%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 27.65
10.0%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 10.02
21.6%
Draw
fair 4.63
23.9%
FC Porto by 1
fair 4.18
19.6%
FC Porto by 2
fair 5.09
20.1%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 4.98
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Rio Ave goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
FC Porto goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 14.7% | 15.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 21.6% | 21.7% | -0.2 pp |
| FC Porto win | 63.7% | 63.2% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 55.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.8% | 51.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 0.87 | 0.87 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 2.02 | 2.01 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rio Ave win14.7%6.79
- Draw21.6%4.63
- FC Porto win63.7%1.57
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw36.3%2.75
- Double chance Rio Ave or FC Porto78.4%1.28
- Double chance FC Porto or draw85.3%1.17
- Draw no bet Rio Ave18.8%5.32
- Draw no bet FC Porto81.2%1.23
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.555.1%1.82
- Over 3.532.7%3.06
- Over 4.516.6%6.03
- Under 1.521.2%4.72
- Under 2.544.9%2.22
- Under 3.567.3%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes50.8%1.97
- No49.2%2.03
- Yes and over 2.540.5%2.47
- Rio Ave win and yes7.6%13.23
- Draw and yes15.5%6.46
- FC Porto win and yes27.7%3.61
Team goals
- Rio Ave over 0.557.9%1.73
- Rio Ave over 1.521.5%4.65
- Rio Ave over 2.55.7%17.42
- FC Porto over 0.586.7%1.15
- FC Porto over 1.559.9%1.67
- FC Porto over 2.532.8%3.05
- Rio Ave clean sheet13.3%7.53
- FC Porto clean sheet42.1%2.38
- Rio Ave win to nil7.2%13.93
- FC Porto win to nil36.0%2.78
Handicap
- Rio Ave −1.54.8%21.03
- Rio Ave −2.51.1%87.77
- FC Porto +1.595.2%1.05
- FC Porto +2.598.9%1.01
- FC Porto −1.539.7%2.52
- Rio Ave +1.560.3%1.66
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won25.0%
Avg chance given to result35.5%
1X2 Brier0.733
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right58.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 51.4% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.