Rio Ave vs FC Porto – 15 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 15 · 20:30 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde

Rio Ave 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–2Full time

FC Porto 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rio Ave. Rio Ave had 6 days of rest, FC Porto 6.1 and had to travel 25 km.

Away travel25 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rio Ave15%

Draw21%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.02

Rio Ave14%

Draw19%

FC Porto67%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.11

Rio Ave15%

Draw21%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.02

Rio Ave11%

Draw18%

FC Porto71%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.26

Rio Ave16%

Draw21%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.01

Over 2.5 55% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila do Conde)

No weather data yet

RefereeMiguel Fonseca

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 6

Team strength

Rio Ave

FC Porto

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

18 AttackIn forecast 74

21 DefenceIn forecast 79

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rio Ave

FC Porto

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.70 ShotsContext 14.00

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

38% On target shareContext 31%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

60% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.14

13.40 Shots allowedContext 10.20

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.60 BlocksContext 2.22

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

71% Save rateContext 76%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

365 PassesContext 426

293 Accurate passesContext 359

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.50 FoulsContext 12.80

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave L

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km45 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected

L9 AugA · GIL Vicente0–11.0 xPts

FC Porto W

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel25 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 59 · 3 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W9 AugH · Alverca2–02.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rio Ave	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Aug	6.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	25 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	45 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99E. van der Gouw(G)

6N. Abbey 39Gustavo Mancha 23F. Petrasso 54G. Liavas

44T. Nikitscher 90Diogo Nascimento 30R. Galcik

7Diogo Bezerra 9Tamble Monteiro 11Jalen Blesa

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 18P. Pérez

10Gabri Veiga 13P. Rosario 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 27D. Gül 7William Gomes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home No home games yet this season.

FC Porto · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Rio Ave wins2 draws5 FC Porto wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored38% Clean sheets13% · 63%

22 Feb 2026FC Porto1–0Rio Ave
19 Sep 2025Rio Ave0–3FC Porto
3 Feb 2025Rio Ave2–2FC Porto
24 Aug 2024FC Porto2–0Rio Ave
3 Feb 2024FC Porto0–0Rio Ave
28 Aug 2023Rio Ave1–2FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.88
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.50
Conceded per game	1.40	0.90
Match goals	2.50	2.40	2.88
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	7.00
Corners conceded	5.00	9.00
Match total	7.00	16.00	8.91
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	0.00
Opponent cards	2.00	4.00
Match total	6.00	4.00	5.09
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Rio Ave	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	5.63
Corners conceded	5.56	4.50
Match total	11.34	10.13	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.50
Match total	4.60	4.70	5.09
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Fonseca 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.17league 5.00

Red cards0.17league 0.25

Cards 5+67%league 50%

Fouls35.2league 26.4

Penalties0.17league 0.42

Home wins50%league 33%

Rio Ave

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.