Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 26). Rio Ave had 8 days of rest, SC Braga 7 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rio Ave22%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Rio Ave23%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Rio Ave22%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Rio Ave17%
Draw23%
SC Braga60%
Rio Ave23%
Draw25%
SC Braga52%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Rio Ave
SC Braga
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
18
AttackIn forecast
42
21
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveSC Braga
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.83
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
16.50
ShotsContext
13.67
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
46%
On target shareContext
42%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
62%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
—
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.00
Shots allowedContext
6.33
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
3.50
BlocksContext
1.67
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
73%
Save rateContext
80%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
409
PassesContext
626
348
Accurate passesContext
557
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.00
14.50
FoulsContext
8.00
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.50
ShotsContext
15.75
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.13
39%
On target shareContext
39%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.83
60%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.00
Shots allowedContext
5.75
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.25
3.10
BlocksContext
2.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
68%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
375
PassesContext
546
309
Accurate passesContext
475
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.40
FoulsContext
10.88
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.38
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel35 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 126 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
4J. Panzo
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
54G. Liavas
17M. Vrousai
18D. Špikić
9Clayton
11André Luiz
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
5Leonardo Lelo
15Paulo Oliveira
14G. Lagerbielke
2Víctor Gómez
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
8João Moutinho
10R. Zalazar
18Pau Víctor
7R. Fernandes
39Fran Navarro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
SC Braga · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Rio Ave wins1 draws4 SC Braga wins
Goals per game0.83 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 2 Mar 2025Rio Ave2–1SC Braga
- 29 Sep 2024SC Braga4–0Rio Ave
- 9 Mar 2024Rio Ave0–0SC Braga
- 7 Oct 2023SC Braga2–1Rio Ave
- 5 Mar 2023SC Braga2–0Rio Ave
- 11 Sep 2022Rio Ave2–3SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Rio Ave | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.50 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.00 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Rio Ave | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.40 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.40 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 5.19
Red cards0.17league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 63%
Fouls29.0league 28.2
Penalties0.33league 0.31
Home wins67%league 34%
Rio AveNo previous matches with this referee.
SC BragaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Braga3 games · scored 8 · conceded 2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 24 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
