Primeira Liga Gameweek 4 Fri, Aug 28 · 20:15 Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
Rio Ave 10th · 3 pts · 3 played
0–4Full time
Sporting CP 2nd · 7 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Sporting CP were clear favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rio Ave. Rio Ave had 6.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 6 and had to travel 294 km.

Away travel294 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rio Ave14%
Draw20%
Sporting CP66%
Expected goals 0.82 – 2.05
Rio Ave13%
Draw19%
Sporting CP69%
Expected goals 0.82 – 2.19
Rio Ave14%
Draw20%
Sporting CP66%
Expected goals 0.82 – 2.05
Rio Ave10%
Draw17%
Sporting CP73%
Expected goals 0.73 – 2.30
Rio Ave15%
Draw21%
Sporting CP65%
Expected goals 0.82 – 2.00
Over 2.5 55% Both score 49% Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)

No weather data yet

RefereeB. J. Costa
  • Cards per match 6.0
  • Penalties per match 0.00
  • Matches 1

Team strength

Rio AveSporting CP
23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81
21 Current StrengthIn forecast 83
18 AttackIn forecast 75
21 DefenceIn forecast 81
40 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rio Ave

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rio AveSporting CP
0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
0.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.96
1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.71
33% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
7.33 ShotsContext 11.67
2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
27% On target shareContext 51%
3.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
28% Box shareContext 62%
9% ConversionContext 23%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.00 Shots allowedContext 10.00
5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
3.33 BlocksContext 2.00
4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.67
82% Save rateContext 56%
43% PossessionIn forecast 57%
349 PassesContext 523
279 Accurate passesContext 460
80% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.99
8.00 FoulsContext 13.00
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 17.00
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.89
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
60% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
10.20 ShotsContext 13.50
3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
33% On target shareContext 41%
6.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.40
56% Box shareContext 70%
9% ConversionContext 18%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.20 Shots allowedContext 11.20
4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
3.80 BlocksContext 2.80
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
75% Save rateContext 70%
48% PossessionIn forecast 60%
370 PassesContext 531
297 Accurate passesContext 470
80% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.88 Team ratingContext 7.02
9.50 FoulsContext 11.30
10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rio Ave
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km599 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 40 · 3 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • W22 AugA · Estoril2–01.1 xPts
  • L15 AugH · FC Porto0–20.7 xPts
  • L9 AugA · GIL Vicente0–11.0 xPts
Sporting CP
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel294 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
  • W22 AugH · Alverca3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 AugH · Guimaraes3–22.4 xPts
  • D8 AugA · Estrela2–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rio Ave Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km294 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways599 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one8.88

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rio Ave Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
99E. van der Gouw(G)
17M. Vrousai 39Gustavo Mancha 23F. Petrasso 54G. Liavas
5A. Ntoi 44T. Nikitscher
77D. Špikić 11Jalen Blesa 7Diogo Bezerra
9Tamble Monteiro
Sporting CP Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 6Z. Debast 22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira
58Flavio Goncalves 17R. Zalazar 10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rio Ave Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Rio Ave+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Sporting CP+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rio Ave · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00
Sporting CP · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Rio Ave wins1 draws7 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.63 – 2.88 Over 2.575% Both scored38% Clean sheets0% · 63%
  • 11 May 2026Rio Ave1–4Sporting CP
  • 28 Dec 2025Sporting CP4–0Rio Ave
  • 18 Jan 2025Rio Ave0–3Sporting CP
  • 9 Aug 2024Sporting CP3–1Rio Ave
  • 25 Feb 2024Rio Ave3–3Sporting CP
  • 25 Sep 2023Sporting CP2–0Rio Ave

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Rio AveSporting CPForecast
Scored per game 0.672.67
Conceded per game 1.001.67
Match goals 1.674.33 2.87
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 0%100% 55%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 0%100% 49%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 67%0%
Games33
Rio AveSporting CPForecast
Scored per game 0.902.50
Conceded per game 1.401.20
Match goals 2.303.70 2.87
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 30%80% 55%
Over 3.5 20%60%
Both teams scored 40%80% 49%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 40%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Rio AveSporting CPLeague
Corners
Corners won3.674.00
Corners conceded5.673.33
Match total9.347.338.78
Over 8.567% 2/333% 1/3
Over 9.533% 1/30% 0/3
Over 10.533% 1/30% 0/3
Cards
Cards1.672.33
Opponent cards1.003.00
Match total2.675.334.30
Over 3.533% 1/3100% 3/3
Over 4.533% 1/333% 1/3
Rio AveSporting CPLeague
Corners
Corners won4.894.00
Corners conceded5.444.89
Match total10.338.898.78
Over 8.567% 6/956% 5/9
Over 9.556% 5/944% 4/9
Over 10.556% 5/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.101.40
Opponent cards1.702.60
Match total3.804.004.30
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · B. J. Costa 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.21
Red cards1.00league 0.21
Cards 5+100%league 38%
Fouls26.0league 25.6
Penalties0.00league 0.33
Home wins100%league 46%
Rio Ave

No previous matches with this referee.

Sporting CP

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Rio Ave3 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1 1 0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Sporting CP3 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
2 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
4 31-45
3 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 4 76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
4 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 31-45
5 46-60
5 4 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Primeira Liga

View all fixtures →
Rio Ave Sporting CP 04 Arouca Maritimo 21 Alverca Santa Clara 11 Academico Viseu FC Porto 03 Nacional Estrela 23 Casa Pia Moreirense 01 Famalicao GIL Vicente 00 Benfica Estoril 21 SC Braga Guimaraes 10