Rizespor vs Alanyaspor – 25 Jan 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 25 · 14:00 Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

Rizespor 13th · 18 pts · 18 played LDWLL

1–1Full time

Alanyaspor 10th · 21 pts · 18 played DDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Rizespor had 5.9 days of rest, Alanyaspor 6.9 and had to travel 890 km.

Away travel890 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor33%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.29

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor33%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.29

Rizespor33%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor40%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.45

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Alanyaspor33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.28

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rize)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 27

Team strength

Rizespor

Alanyaspor

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

22 AttackIn forecast 18

35 DefenceIn forecast 24

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rizespor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alanyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rizespor

Alanyaspor

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

72% Scored inContext 67%

28% Clean sheetsContext 39%

12.00 ShotsContext 11.33

3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

26% On target shareContext 33%

6.72 Shots in the boxContext 7.39

55% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.07 OffsidesContext 1.80

13.56 Shots allowedContext 10.33

5.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83

3.71 BlocksContext 2.92

3.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

70% Save rateContext 75%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

387 PassesContext 396

316 Accurate passesContext 332

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.83

13.50 FoulsContext 12.61

11.78 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

2.61 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 0.78

1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

70% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.00 ShotsContext 11.70

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

26% On target shareContext 32%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

52% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.60 Shots allowedContext 10.10

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.30 BlocksContext 3.00

4.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

73% Save rateContext 79%

50% PossessionIn forecast 52%

384 PassesContext 423

312 Accurate passesContext 364

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.86

13.00 FoulsContext 11.80

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rizespor

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,359 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alanyaspor

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel890 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rizespor	Alanyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Jan	6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	890 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,359 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rizespor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

75Y. Fofana(G)

5C. Højer 27M. Sagnan 3S. Akaydin 37M. Şahin

6G. Papanikolaou

77A. Zeqiri 10I. Olawoyin 20Q. Laçi 50L. Augusto

9A. Sowe

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Alanyaspor Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Taşkıran(G)

50Ü. Akdağ 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima

11Ruan 58Maestro 42G. Makouta 18Baran Mogultay

16U. Hwang 7E. Karaca

10G. Yalçın

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rizespor Absences are shown before kick-off

Alanyaspor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rizespor+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Alanyaspor-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Rizespor · Home 1.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.44

Alanyaspor · Away 1.00points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-6-2
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Rizespor	Alanyaspor
Goztepe	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H	W 1–0 H
Besiktas	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Eyüpspor	W 3–0 H	L 1–2 A
Konyaspor	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 A
Kayserispor	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 A
Fenerbahce	L 2–5 H	L 2–3 HD 2–2 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Samsunspor	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Trabzonspor	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Antalyaspor	W 5–2 A	D 0–0 H
Kasimpasa	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
Kocaelispor	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Genclerbirligi	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 A
Galatasaray	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Points	17 of 51 · 1.00 per game	20 of 51 · 1.18 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Rizespor wins2 draws2 Alanyaspor wins

Goals per game0.80 – 0.80 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 60%

16 Aug 2025Alanyaspor0–0Rizespor
2 Mar 2025Rizespor3–1Alanyaspor
28 Sep 2024Alanyaspor1–0Rizespor
20 Jan 2024Alanyaspor2–1Rizespor
19 Aug 2023Rizespor0–0Alanyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rizespor	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	2.67	2.00	2.74
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	33%	52%
Over 3.5	28%	17%
Both teams scored	56%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	28%	39%
Failed to score	28%	33%
Games	18	18

	Rizespor	Alanyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	0.90
Match goals	2.50	1.70	2.74
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	20%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rizespor	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	3.63	4.80
Corners conceded	4.75	3.87
Match total	8.38	8.67	9.40
Over 8.5	50% 8/16	47% 7/15
Over 9.5	38% 6/16	40% 6/15
Over 10.5	19% 3/16	40% 6/15
Cards
Cards	2.67	2.11
Opponent cards	1.78	1.83
Match total	4.45	3.94	4.60
Over 3.5	67% 12/18	50% 9/18
Over 4.5	44% 8/18	33% 6/18

	Rizespor	Alanyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	5.70
Corners conceded	4.40	3.20
Match total	8.80	8.90	9.40
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.30
Match total	4.30	3.30	4.60
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.44league 4.37

Red cards0.19league 0.23

Cards 5+48%league 44%

Fouls24.7league 25.7

Penalties0.30league 0.25

Home wins30%league 36%

Rizespor2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L18 Oct 25H · Trabzonspor1–23
W25 May 25A · Besiktas2–13

Alanyaspor1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W13 Sep 25A · Konyaspor2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.