Sabah FA
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sabah FA35.8%fair odds 2.79
Draw25.0%fair odds 4.00
Slavia Praha39.1%fair odds 2.55
Expected goals1.51 – 1.58total 3.09
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Slavia Praha
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sabah FA ↓ · Slavia Praha → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sabah FA goals, columns Slavia Praha goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.76
- 1–28.6%11.64
- 2–18.2%12.23
- 0–16.6%15.12
- 2–26.5%15.43
- 1–06.3%15.95
- 0–25.7%17.56
- 2–05.2%19.37
- 0–05.1%19.56
- 1–34.5%22.04
Winning margin
6.7%
Sabah FA by 3+
fair 14.96
10.7%
Sabah FA by 2
fair 9.33
18.4%
Sabah FA by 1
fair 5.42
25.0%
Draw
fair 4.00
19.4%
Slavia Praha by 1
fair 5.16
11.8%
Slavia Praha by 2
fair 8.45
7.9%
Slavia Praha by 3+
fair 12.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Sabah FA goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Slavia Praha goals
21%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA win | 35.8% | 36.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Slavia Praha win | 39.1% | 39.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 60.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.5% | 62.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Sabah FA | 1.51 | 1.52 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Slavia Praha | 1.58 | 1.59 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sabah FA win35.8%2.79
- Draw25.0%4.00
- Slavia Praha win39.1%2.55
- Double chance Sabah FA or draw60.9%1.64
- Double chance Sabah FA or Slavia Praha75.0%1.33
- Double chance Slavia Praha or draw64.2%1.56
- Draw no bet Sabah FA47.8%2.09
- Draw no bet Slavia Praha52.2%1.92
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.582.0%1.22
- Over 2.559.7%1.67
- Over 3.537.4%2.68
- Over 4.520.1%4.99
- Under 1.518.0%5.56
- Under 2.540.3%2.48
- Under 3.562.6%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes62.5%1.60
- No37.5%2.67
- Yes and over 2.551.1%1.96
- Sabah FA win and yes20.4%4.89
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- Slavia Praha win and yes22.1%4.52
Team goals
- Sabah FA over 0.577.9%1.28
- Sabah FA over 1.544.5%2.25
- Sabah FA over 2.519.3%5.17
- Slavia Praha over 0.579.5%1.26
- Slavia Praha over 1.547.0%2.13
- Slavia Praha over 2.521.3%4.70
- Sabah FA clean sheet20.5%4.88
- Slavia Praha clean sheet22.1%4.52
- Sabah FA win to nil15.4%6.50
- Slavia Praha win to nil17.0%5.88
Handicap
- Sabah FA −1.517.4%5.75
- Sabah FA −2.56.7%14.96
- Slavia Praha +1.582.6%1.21
- Slavia Praha +2.593.3%1.07
- Slavia Praha −1.519.7%5.06
- Sabah FA +1.580.3%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored17
Favourite won76.5%
Avg chance given to result55.7%
1X2 Brier0.378
Over 2.5 called right76.5%
BTTS called right70.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.8% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.6% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 66.1% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 17 of 17 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3777 | 0.3653 |
| Avg chance given to result | 55.7% | 57.1% |
| Favourite won | 76.5% | 70.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Como 4–1 RB Leipzig51·22·27
- ✓Slavia Praha 2–3 Lens34·23·43
- ✓Bayern München 5–0 Bodo/Glimt81·11·7
- ✓Manchester United 4–0 Sabah FA82·11·7
- ✗Fenerbahce 1–1 AS Roma29·22·49
- ✗PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Shakhtar Donetsk70·17·13
- ✓Napoli 0–1 Arsenal16·21·62
- ✓Sporting CP 3–1 Galatasaray52·22·26
- ✓Paris Saint Germain 6–1 Slovan Bratislava87·9·4
- ✓Liverpool 2–1 Atletico Madrid59·21·20
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 17 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.