UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 17:45 Bank Respublika Arena, Masazir
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

Slavia Praha were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sabah FA. Sabah FA had 32.9 days of rest, Slavia Praha 32.9 and had to travel 2,946 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,946 kmRest days32.9 · 32.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sabah FA36%
Draw24%
Slavia Praha40%
Expected goals 1.51 – 1.58
Sabah FA32%
Draw26%
Slavia Praha42%
Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44
Sabah FA35%
Draw24%
Slavia Praha41%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.59
Sabah FA29%
Draw23%
Slavia Praha48%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.78
Sabah FA37%
Draw24%
Slavia Praha40%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.59
Over 2.5 60% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Masazir)
21°COvercast
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 18 km/h
  • Humidity 86%
RefereeSebastian Gishamer
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.25
  • Matches 51

Team strength

Sabah FASlavia Praha
24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
30 AttackIn forecast 41
27 DefenceIn forecast 40
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sabah FA

Attack—
Defense risk—

Slavia Praha

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sabah FASlavia Praha
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
— xGVia Att/Def 1.10
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.07
— Goals minus xGContext -0.20
80% Scored inContext 50%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
18.00 ShotsContext 12.50
7.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
34% On target shareContext 29%
13.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
64% Box shareContext 61%
12% ConversionContext 7%
2.50 OffsidesContext 3.75
14.50 Shots allowedContext 17.10
5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.80
4.60 BlocksContext 4.80
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.20
60% Save rateContext 67%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
430 PassesContext 327
361 Accurate passesContext 246
84% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.65
12.60 FoulsContext 15.10
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sabah FA
Rest32.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 0 pts vs 0.6 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
  • L10 SepA · Manchester United0–40.3 xPts
Slavia Praha
Rest32.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,946 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • L10 SepH · Lens2–31.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sabah FA Slavia Praha
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match32.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep32.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,946 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sabah FA Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
92S. Pokatilov(G)
27T. Puchacz 4A. McCarthy 3S. Solvet 80A. Zedadka
13I. Lepinjica 7U. Rahmonaliyev
21V. Simić 37Du Queiroz 11K. Parris
20J. Mickels
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
Slavia Praha Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
35J. Markovič(G)
27T. Vlček 6C. N'Guessan 4D. Zima 3T. Holeš
23M. Sadílek 16D. Moses
10D. Šturm 17L. Provod 20E. Ayaosi
25T. Chorý
+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sabah FA Absences are shown before kick-off
Slavia Praha Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Sabah FA+1.4 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • Slavia Praha-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Sabah FA · Home No home games yet this season.
Slavia Praha · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Referee · Sebastian Gishamer 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 3.61
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+29%league 33%
Fouls23.0league 23.0
Penalties0.25league 0.17
Home wins57%league 61%
Sabah FA

No previous matches with this referee.

Slavia Praha

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Sabah FA1 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Slavia Praha1 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Sabah FA10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 5 31-45
2 46-60
5 3 61-75
6 3 76-90
Slavia Praha10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
1 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 7 61-75
2 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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