Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Samsunspor
6th · 25 pts · 15 played
WWDDL
0–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
11th · 17 pts · 15 played
WLLWD
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 27). Samsunspor had 9 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 8 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Samsunspor49%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Samsunspor49%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Samsunspor49%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Samsunspor41%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir32%
Samsunspor49%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
SamsunsporIstanbul Basaksehir
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
15
AttackIn forecast
32
18
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporIstanbul Basaksehir
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
87%
Scored inContext
80%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.93
ShotsContext
12.13
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
33%
On target shareContext
30%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
60%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.67
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.23
BlocksContext
3.79
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.47
76%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
390
PassesContext
422
320
Accurate passesContext
357
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.67
FoulsContext
12.00
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.87
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
13.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
29%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.44
10.00
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.00
BlocksContext
4.22
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
64%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
417
PassesContext
435
345
Accurate passesContext
369
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.50
FoulsContext
10.40
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Dec | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
28S. Gönül
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
11E. Kılınç
10J. Ntcham
21C. Holse
7A. Musaba
19P. Ndiaye
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
6O. Bulut
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-1
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 0.88
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 3–4 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 24 of 42 · 1.71 per game | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Samsunspor wins1 draws2 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 75%
- 1 Feb 2025Istanbul Basaksehir4–0Samsunspor
- 18 Sep 2024Samsunspor2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 3 Mar 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Samsunspor
- 22 Oct 2023Samsunspor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.47 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 47% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Samsunspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 5.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 11.14 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 87% 13/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 7/14 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 7/14 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.53 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 87% 13/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Samsunspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 11.50 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.50 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.40league 4.46
Red cards0.20league 0.26
Cards 5+0%league 48%
Fouls21.6league 26.2
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins20%league 34%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor15 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir15 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
6
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
