Samsunspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Samsunspor
6th · 25 pts · 15 played
WWDDL
0–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
11th · 17 pts · 15 played
WLLWD
Samsunspor48.9%fair odds 2.05
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.90
Istanbul Basaksehir25.5%fair odds 3.92
Expected goals1.65 – 1.13total 2.78
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Samsunspor ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Samsunspor goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.21
- 1–09.6%10.39
- 2–19.5%10.48
- 2–08.4%11.85
- 0–06.8%14.66
- 1–26.5%15.29
- 0–16.4%15.62
- 2–25.4%18.55
- 3–15.2%19.07
- 3–04.6%21.55
Winning margin
11.1%
Samsunspor by 3+
fair 8.97
15.1%
Samsunspor by 2
fair 6.63
22.6%
Samsunspor by 1
fair 4.42
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.90
15.3%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 6.53
7.1%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 14.13
3.1%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 32.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Samsunspor goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 48.9% | 48.8% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 25.5% | 25.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 51.0% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.3% | 54.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Samsunspor | 1.65 | 1.62 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.13 | 1.10 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Samsunspor win48.9%2.05
- Draw25.7%3.90
- Istanbul Basaksehir win25.5%3.92
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw74.5%1.34
- Double chance Samsunspor or Istanbul Basaksehir74.3%1.35
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Samsunspor65.7%1.52
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir34.3%2.92
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.2%1.30
- Over 2.552.6%1.90
- Over 3.530.3%3.30
- Over 4.514.9%6.71
- Under 1.522.8%4.38
- Under 2.547.4%2.11
- Under 3.569.7%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes55.3%1.81
- No44.7%2.24
- Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
- Samsunspor win and yes23.4%4.28
- Draw and yes18.8%5.31
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes13.1%7.64
Team goals
- Samsunspor over 0.580.8%1.24
- Samsunspor over 1.549.1%2.04
- Samsunspor over 2.522.9%4.36
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.567.7%1.48
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.531.2%3.21
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.510.6%9.46
- Samsunspor clean sheet32.3%3.10
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet19.2%5.20
- Samsunspor win to nil25.5%3.93
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil12.4%8.06
Handicap
- Samsunspor −1.526.2%3.81
- Samsunspor −2.511.1%8.97
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.573.8%1.36
- Istanbul Basaksehir +2.588.9%1.13
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.510.2%9.83
- Samsunspor +1.589.8%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored141
Favourite won45.4%
Avg chance given to result39.6%
1X2 Brier0.605
Over 2.5 called right51.1%
BTTS called right49.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.0% | 27.3% |
| 40–50% | 62 | 44.2% | 35.5% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 55.0% | 51.5% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 65.7% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 8 | 75.5% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 115 of 141 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6151 | 0.5988 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 46.1% | 48.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 115 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 141 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.