Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Trabzonspor. Samsunspor had 20 days of rest, Trabzonspor 20.8 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days20 · 20.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Samsunspor32%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor44%
Samsunspor35%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor39%
Samsunspor32%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor44%
Samsunspor25%
Draw23%
Trabzonspor52%
Samsunspor32%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor44%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 27
Team strength
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
15
AttackIn forecast
54
18
DefenceIn forecast
48
13
Form indexContext
54
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporTrabzonspor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
50%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.67
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
21%
On target shareContext
48%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
54%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.17
Shots allowedContext
12.67
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
3.67
BlocksContext
2.40
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
66%
Save rateContext
79%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
517
PassesContext
465
440
Accurate passesContext
403
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.17
FoulsContext
11.33
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.17
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
12.88
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.13
32%
On target shareContext
48%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.14
59%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.20
Shots allowedContext
13.25
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.10
BlocksContext
3.33
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
67%
Save rateContext
76%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
470
PassesContext
446
395
Accurate passesContext
386
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.30
FoulsContext
11.10
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
WLLLL
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -3.4 vs expected
Trabzonspor
WLWLW
Rest20.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 9 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 9.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
34G. Guarino
22Y. Çift
2J. Mendes
4Elliot Watt
5C. Yüksel
11E. Kılınç
42Y. Sekongo
10T. Coulibaly
18M. Bayo
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
15S. Savić
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
6Fabinho
57M. Kabasakal
58D. Şimşir
7E. Muçi
10Mohamed Salah
9F. Gluda Djú
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 3.33
Trabzonspor · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Samsunspor wins2 draws2 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.67
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 7 Feb 2026Samsunspor0–3Trabzonspor
- 31 Aug 2025Trabzonspor1–1Samsunspor
- 25 May 2025Trabzonspor2–2Samsunspor
- 4 Jan 2025Samsunspor2–1Trabzonspor
- 4 May 2024Samsunspor3–1Trabzonspor
- 11 Jan 2024Trabzonspor2–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 8.33 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 2.84 | 5.33 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Samsunspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 9.20 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.90 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 4.11
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+37%league 45%
Fouls26.5league 25.3
Penalties0.44league 0.36
Home wins37%league 48%
Samsunspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Mar 26A · Fenerbahce2–36
- D22 Feb 26A · Fatih Karagümrük0–01
Trabzonspor3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W9 May 26A · Besiktas2–12
- W18 Mar 26A · Eyüpspor1–01
- D30 Jan 26A · Antalyaspor1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor6 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
1
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
76-90
Trabzonspor6 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
1
7
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
6
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
