Samsunspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Samsunspor31.6%fair odds 3.17
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Trabzonspor43.2%fair odds 2.31
Expected goals1.37 – 1.64total 3.01
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Trabzonspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Samsunspor ↓ · Trabzonspor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Samsunspor goals, columns Trabzonspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.58
- 1–29.1%11.02
- 2–17.6%13.16
- 0–17.5%13.37
- 0–26.6%15.13
- 2–26.2%16.06
- 1–06.2%16.21
- 0–05.5%18.15
- 1–35.0%20.18
- 2–04.6%21.57
Winning margin
5.1%
Samsunspor by 3+
fair 19.57
9.3%
Samsunspor by 2
fair 10.81
17.2%
Samsunspor by 1
fair 5.81
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
20.7%
Trabzonspor by 1
fair 4.84
13.2%
Trabzonspor by 2
fair 7.58
9.4%
Trabzonspor by 3+
fair 10.67
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Samsunspor goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Trabzonspor goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 31.6% | 31.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Trabzonspor win | 43.2% | 43.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 55.5% | +2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.7% | 58.9% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Samsunspor | 1.37 | 1.32 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Trabzonspor | 1.64 | 1.59 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Samsunspor win31.6%3.17
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Trabzonspor win43.2%2.31
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw56.8%1.76
- Double chance Samsunspor or Trabzonspor74.8%1.34
- Double chance Trabzonspor or draw68.4%1.46
- Draw no bet Samsunspor42.2%2.37
- Draw no bet Trabzonspor57.8%1.73
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.8%1.24
- Over 2.557.9%1.73
- Over 3.535.5%2.81
- Over 4.518.7%5.36
- Under 1.519.2%5.22
- Under 2.542.1%2.38
- Under 3.564.5%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes60.7%1.65
- No39.3%2.55
- Yes and over 2.549.1%2.04
- Samsunspor win and yes17.7%5.66
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- Trabzonspor win and yes23.4%4.27
Team goals
- Samsunspor over 0.574.7%1.34
- Samsunspor over 1.539.9%2.51
- Samsunspor over 2.516.0%6.25
- Trabzonspor over 0.580.6%1.24
- Trabzonspor over 1.548.8%2.05
- Trabzonspor over 2.522.7%4.41
- Samsunspor clean sheet19.4%5.15
- Trabzonspor clean sheet25.3%3.95
- Samsunspor win to nil13.9%7.19
- Trabzonspor win to nil19.8%5.04
Handicap
- Samsunspor −1.514.4%6.96
- Samsunspor −2.55.1%19.57
- Trabzonspor +1.585.6%1.17
- Trabzonspor +2.594.9%1.05
- Trabzonspor −1.522.6%4.43
- Samsunspor +1.577.4%1.29
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored56
Favourite won44.6%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.620
Over 2.5 called right60.7%
BTTS called right48.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.7% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 22 | 44.9% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 55.1% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 74.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 30 of 56 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5998 | 0.5958 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.8% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 46.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 30 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 56 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.