Santa Clara vs Alverca – 20 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 20 · 15:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 11th · 5 pts · 5 played LLDWD

2–1Full time

Alverca 13th · 4 pts · 5 played LLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Santa Clara had 7.8 days of rest, Alverca 7.8 and had to travel 1,454 km.

Away travel1,454 kmRest days7.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Santa Clara43%

Draw28%

Alverca29%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.08

Santa Clara44%

Draw27%

Alverca29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Santa Clara43%

Draw28%

Alverca29%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.08

Santa Clara36%

Draw29%

Alverca35%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.22

Santa Clara44%

Draw27%

Alverca29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.08
Matches 12

Team strength

Santa Clara

Alverca

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

29 AttackIn forecast 38

53 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Alverca

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

-0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

40% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.20 ShotsContext 8.60

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

29% On target shareContext 40%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.40

64% Box shareContext 62%

4% ConversionContext 12%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.33

9.60 Shots allowedContext 12.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.33 BlocksContext 3.40

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

85% Save rateContext 71%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

357 PassesContext 328

291 Accurate passesContext 260

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.40 FoulsContext 13.40

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

50% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.20 ShotsContext 8.60

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

29% On target shareContext 40%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.40

64% Box shareContext 62%

4% ConversionContext 12%

2.67 OffsidesContext 1.33

9.60 Shots allowedContext 12.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.25 BlocksContext 3.40

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

85% Save rateContext 71%

46% PossessionIn forecast 43%

357 PassesContext 328

291 Accurate passesContext 260

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.77

14.33 FoulsContext 13.40

14.67 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 5 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km5,737 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alverca

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,454 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Alverca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Sep	7.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,454 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,737 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Gabriel Batista(G)

32MT 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 23Sidney Lima

3Matheus Pereira 6Adriano 35Serginho 42Lucas Soares

70Vinícius Lopes 10Gabriel Silva 11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13André Gomes(G)

3Julián Jose Martinez 5Sergi Gómez 4Kaiky Naves

55Francisco Chissumba 8Alexsandro Amorim 21S. Abdulai 2Zoubdi

20Figueiredo 9M. Milovanović 18Lincoln

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alverca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.50

Alverca · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Alverca
Benfica	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Estrela	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
Moreirense	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Points	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.80
Match goals	1.40	2.80	2.47
Over 1.5	40%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	80%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	5	5

	Santa Clara	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.80
Match goals	1.40	2.80	2.47
Over 1.5	40%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	80%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.25
Corners conceded	3.67	5.00
Match total	8.67	8.25	9.22
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.60
Opponent cards	3.00	3.40
Match total	5.20	6.00	5.10
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	40% 2/5

	Santa Clara	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	3.25
Corners conceded	3.50	5.00
Match total	10.00	8.25	9.22
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.60
Opponent cards	2.70	3.40
Match total	5.40	6.00	5.10
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 2/5

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 5.00

Red cards0.00league 0.18

Cards 5+25%league 60%

Fouls25.3league 27.5

Penalties0.08league 0.29

Home wins50%league 33%

Santa Clara2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D18 Apr 25A · Rio Ave1–12
W8 Feb 25A · AVS2–11

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.