Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 4 Sun, Aug 31 · 20:30
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
Santa Clara were slight favourites.
Santa Clara were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 16). Santa Clara had 14.1 days of rest, Estrela 6 and had to travel 1,438 km.
Away travel1,438 kmRest days14.1 · 6Matches / 14d0 · 1
Santa Clara50%
Draw27%
Estrela23%
Santa Clara51%
Draw26%
Estrela24%
Santa Clara50%
Draw27%
Estrela23%
Santa Clara43%
Draw28%
Estrela29%
Santa Clara51%
Draw26%
Estrela24%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 28
Team strength
Santa Clara
Estrela
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
29
AttackIn forecast
24
53
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraEstrela
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.74
0%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.33
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
26%
On target shareContext
30%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
62%
Box shareContext
47%
0%
ConversionContext
7%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
5.50
Shots allowedContext
8.33
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
—
BlocksContext
3.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
50%
Save rateContext
100%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
439
PassesContext
273
376
Accurate passesContext
206
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.83
16.00
FoulsContext
14.67
18.50
Fouls sufferedContext
19.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.64
60%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.40
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
63%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.78
8.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.50
BlocksContext
4.10
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
63%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
371
PassesContext
286
304
Accurate passesContext
211
82%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.88
18.20
FoulsContext
14.70
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.90
3.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estrela
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,438 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Estrela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,438 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
32MT
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
23Sidney Lima
64Paulo Victor
35Serginho
8Pedro Ferreira
42Lucas Soares
3Matheus Pereira
10Gabriel Silva
70Vinícius Lopes
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
79A. Chernev
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
11Jovane Cabral
8Robinho
99A. Marcus
17Jefferson Encada
89J. Gastao
13Alan Godoy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estrela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Estrela · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Santa Clara wins1 draws0 Estrela wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 23 Feb 2025Estrela0–0Santa Clara
- 21 Sep 2024Santa Clara1–0Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 33% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Santa Clara | Estrela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 33% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 8.00 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.00 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Santa Clara | Estrela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.10 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.70 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 6.30 | 5.70 | 5.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 5.19
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+54%league 63%
Fouls29.8league 28.2
Penalties0.32league 0.31
Home wins46%league 34%
Santa Clara1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W30 Dec 24A · Famalicao2–13
Estrela1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Oct 23H · Famalicao1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara2 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Estrela3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
