Santa Clara vs Moreirense – 17 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 17 · 18:00 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–1Full time

Moreirense 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Santa Clara had 7 days of rest, Moreirense 6.9 and had to travel 1,537 km.

Away travel1,537 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Santa Clara42%

Draw28%

Moreirense31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.16

Santa Clara43%

Draw27%

Moreirense30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Santa Clara42%

Draw28%

Moreirense30%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.14

Santa Clara35%

Draw28%

Moreirense37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.30

Santa Clara42%

Draw27%

Moreirense31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.23

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 8.3
Penalties per match 0.67
Matches 3

Team strength

Santa Clara

Moreirense

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

29 AttackIn forecast 17

53 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Moreirense

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 0.73

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.33 ShotsContext 10.30

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 35%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 5.30

58% Box shareContext 49%

12% ConversionContext 14%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.22

11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.40

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.43 BlocksContext 3.67

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

72% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

324 PassesContext 368

256 Accurate passesContext 302

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.86

16.43 FoulsContext 13.40

14.86 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

3.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,045 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Moreirense

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,537 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Aug	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,537 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,045 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Gabriel Batista(G)

3Matheus Pereira 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 13Luís Rocha 23Sidney Lima

6Adriano 8Pedro Ferreira

10Gabriel Silva 35Serginho 70Vinícius Lopes

29Wendel

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22Caio Secco(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 44Marcelo 76Dinis Pinto

8M. Stjepanović 80L. Ofori

7Cedric Teguia 11Alan 10Kiko Bondoso

95Guilherme Schettine

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara-0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Moreirense+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home No home games yet this season.

Moreirense · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Santa Clara wins1 draws1 Moreirense wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

9 Mar 2025Santa Clara1–1Moreirense
5 Oct 2024Moreirense1–0Santa Clara

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Santa Clara	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	6.00
Corners conceded	2.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	8.00	9.33
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	4.00	4.83
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Santa Clara	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	4.83	3.11
Corners conceded	4.17	4.00
Match total	9.00	7.11	9.33
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	3.80	2.90
Opponent cards	2.40	3.20
Match total	6.20	6.10	4.83
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards8.33league 5.00

Red cards0.00league 0.08

Cards 5+100%league 62%

Fouls29.3league 29.6

Penalties0.67league 0.38

Home wins33%league 46%

Santa Clara

No previous matches with this referee.

Moreirense

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.