Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Sassuolo were without J. Idzes and S. Walukiewicz. AC Milan were without A. Saelemaekers. Sassuolo had 22.9 days of rest, AC Milan 20.9 and had to travel 142 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel142 kmRest days22.9 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sassuolo31%
Draw24%
AC Milan45%
Sassuolo28%
Draw25%
AC Milan47%
Sassuolo32%
Draw25%
AC Milan43%
Sassuolo25%
Draw23%
AC Milan52%
Sassuolo32%
Draw25%
AC Milan44%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 52%
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 51
Team strength
Sassuolo
AC Milan
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
41
AttackIn forecast
72
32
DefenceIn forecast
69
49
Form indexContext
58
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloAC Milan
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.40
ShotsContext
12.80
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
40%
On target shareContext
33%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
60%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.60
Shots allowedContext
9.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
4.80
BlocksContext
3.00
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
70%
Save rateContext
81%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
444
PassesContext
571
391
Accurate passesContext
508
88%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.02
8.80
FoulsContext
10.20
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.30
ShotsContext
12.70
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
37%
On target shareContext
33%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
64%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.75
14.70
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.70
BlocksContext
3.44
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
69%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
468
PassesContext
507
412
Accurate passesContext
447
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.00
FoulsContext
11.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
LWDWL
Rest22.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
AC Milan
WDDLW
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel142 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 8 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.9Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Sep | 20.9Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 142 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
16F. Leysen
15D. Ćaleta-Car
20I. Van der Brempt
50D. Bakola
18N. Matić
17V. Adžić
45A. Laurienté
94S. Esposito
10D. Berardi
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
2P. Estupiñán
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
34Mario Gila
22Diego Moreira
12A. Rabiot
80Y. Musah
21S. Chukwueze
11C. Pulišić
9Gonçalo Ramos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −8.5% · Defence line −26.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Idzes Starter 6.62 Def −10.9%
- DEF S. Walukiewicz Starter 6.72 Def −9.3%
- MID I. Koné Starter 6.97 Att −6.9% Def −4.5%
- MID C. Volpato Rotation 6.80 Att −1.6% Def −1.0%
- DEF Fali Candé Rotation 6.46 Def −0.9%
AC Milan
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −13.2% · Defence line −2.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Saelemaekers Starter 7.07 Att −13.2%
- DEF P. Estupiñán Rotation 6.65 Def −2.0%
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- AC Milan+1.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
AC Milan · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Sassuolo wins3 draws2 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.88 – 1.50
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 38%
- 3 May 2026Sassuolo2–0AC Milan
- 14 Dec 2025AC Milan2–2Sassuolo
- 14 Apr 2024Sassuolo3–3AC Milan
- 30 Dec 2023AC Milan1–0Sassuolo
- 29 Jan 2023AC Milan2–5Sassuolo
- 30 Aug 2022Sassuolo0–0AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Sassuolo | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 6.20 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Sassuolo | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 6.80 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.40 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 3.34
Red cards0.10league 0.05
Cards 5+51%league 29%
Fouls25.6league 22.0
Penalties0.27league 0.13
Home wins47%league 46%
Sassuolo7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 Apr 26H · Como2–13
- L17 Jan 26A · Napoli0–13
- W3 Oct 25A · Verona1–04
- L8 Apr 23A · Verona1–24
- W6 Mar 23H · Cremonese3–21
AC Milan6 with this referee
Record4-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W21 Mar 26H · Torino3–23
- W15 Feb 25H · Verona1–03
- D11 Jan 25H · Cagliari1–11
- W20 May 23H · Sampdoria5–11
- W4 Jan 23A · Salernitana2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
AC Milan5 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
8
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
8
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
