Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Sassuolo had 5.3 days of rest, Como 4.9 and had to travel 173 km.
Away travel173 kmRest days5.3 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sassuolo19%
Draw25%
Como56%
Sassuolo27%
Draw26%
Como47%
Sassuolo20%
Draw26%
Como54%
Sassuolo15%
Draw23%
Como63%
Sassuolo20%
Draw24%
Como56%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 47
Team strength
Sassuolo
Como
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
41
AttackIn forecast
72
32
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloComo
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.34
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.81
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
69%
Scored inContext
75%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
10.38
ShotsContext
14.28
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.06
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.84
Shots in the boxContext
9.26
67%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.09
Shots allowedContext
8.91
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
3.47
BlocksContext
3.04
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
73%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
384
PassesContext
523
317
Accurate passesContext
457
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.50
FoulsContext
13.13
12.59
Fouls sufferedContext
11.94
2.28
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.90
ShotsContext
15.60
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.89
76%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.30
Shots allowedContext
7.40
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.20
BlocksContext
3.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
71%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
369
PassesContext
542
306
Accurate passesContext
480
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.70
FoulsContext
12.40
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel173 km645 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 4.9Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 173 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 275 km | 645 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
13S. Turati(G)
25W. Coulibaly
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
8M. Nzola
7C. Volpato
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
6M. Caqueret
33L. da Cunha
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
38Assane Diao
7Álvaro Morata
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Como+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-7
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.38
Como · Away
1.73points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-3
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 0.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Lazio | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Atalanta | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Verona | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Udinese | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A |
| Pisa | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Parma | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Points | 42 of 93 · 1.35 per game | 55 of 93 · 1.77 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sassuolo wins0 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 28 Nov 2025Como2–0Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.34 | 0.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.56 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 47% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 44% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Sassuolo | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.72 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.35 | 6.90 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 17/32 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 12/32 | 14% 4/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 7/32 | 10% 3/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.84 | 2.34 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 4.56 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 20/32 | 69% 22/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 12/32 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Sassuolo | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 6.60 | 8.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.90 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.34league 3.73
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+51%league 36%
Fouls25.7league 24.9
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins47%league 40%
Sassuolo6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L17 Jan 26A · Napoli0–13
- W3 Oct 25A · Verona1–04
- L8 Apr 23A · Verona1–24
- W6 Mar 23H · Cremonese3–21
- W20 Feb 22A · Inter2–02
Como2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Feb 26H · Lecce3–10
- W10 May 25H · Cagliari3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo31 games · scored 38 · conceded 41
7
9
0-15
3
8
16-30
4
3
31-45
9
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
5
9
76-90
Como31 games · scored 54 · conceded 25
10
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
13
4
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
