Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Sassuolo had 8.1 days of rest, Inter 7 and had to travel 142 km.
Away travel142 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sassuolo13%
Draw23%
Inter64%
Sassuolo12%
Draw19%
Inter69%
Sassuolo13%
Draw22%
Inter65%
Sassuolo10%
Draw20%
Inter71%
Sassuolo14%
Draw22%
Inter65%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 73
Team strength
Sassuolo
Inter
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
86
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
41
AttackIn forecast
91
32
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloInter
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.26
1.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
65%
Scored inContext
96%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
11.00
ShotsContext
17.83
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.91
35%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.52
64%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.05
13.61
Shots allowedContext
8.30
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.05
3.09
BlocksContext
2.95
3.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
74%
Save rateContext
78%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
389
PassesContext
531
320
Accurate passesContext
462
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.13
FoulsContext
13.78
13.48
Fouls sufferedContext
11.96
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
60%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.20
ShotsContext
18.00
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
13.60
65%
Box shareContext
76%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.80
Shots allowedContext
8.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
3.10
BlocksContext
3.00
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
71%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
393
PassesContext
537
323
Accurate passesContext
468
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.00
FoulsContext
12.60
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km223 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel142 km149 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 142 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 223 km | 149 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
42K. Thorstvedt
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
7P. Zieliński
8P. Sučić
11L. de Lima
9M. Thuram
10L. Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Inter-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.27
Inter · Away
2.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-0-2
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | W 6–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–3 H | L 3–4 A |
| Parma | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Como | L 0–2 A | W 4–0 H |
| Atalanta | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 29 of 66 · 1.32 per game | 52 of 66 · 2.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Sassuolo wins0 draws4 Inter wins
Goals per game1.43 – 1.57
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 0%
- 21 Sep 2025Inter2–1Sassuolo
- 4 May 2024Sassuolo1–0Inter
- 27 Sep 2023Inter1–2Sassuolo
- 13 May 2023Inter4–2Sassuolo
- 8 Oct 2022Sassuolo1–2Inter
- 20 Feb 2022Inter0–2Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.26 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.09 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 57% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 43% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 4% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Sassuolo | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.35 | 6.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 9.31 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 7/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 9% 2/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.17 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 15/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 8/23 | 17% 4/23 | |
| Sassuolo | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 8.20 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.30 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.83
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+37%league 37%
Fouls22.7league 25.6
Penalties0.19league 0.32
Home wins41%league 38%
Sassuolo2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Feb 24H · Napoli1–60
- D17 Oct 21A · Genoa2–24
Inter11 with this referee
Record5-4-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds3
- D18 May 25H · Lazio2–22
- W30 Mar 25H · Udinese2–12
- D2 Feb 25A · AC Milan1–12
- W16 Dec 24A · Lazio6–04
- L19 Mar 23H · Juventus0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo23 games · scored 27 · conceded 29
7
5
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
8
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Inter23 games · scored 52 · conceded 19
8
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
10
2
61-75
13
6
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
